801
FXUS64 KLCH 020224
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
924 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The last cluster of daytime heating type convection is weakening
as it moves from the lower Atchafalaya Basin into the coastal
waters. With land areas becoming more stable, not expecting much
shower activity for the remainder of the night. However, with a
very moist air mass, PWAT on this evening`s sounding from KLCH was
over 2.3 inches, can not rule out some nocturnal shower activity
developing over the coastal water. However, with mean mid level
wind flow from the northeast, any activity that develops over the
coastal waters should stay offshore.

No significant changes to the forecast at this time. Another hot
one on tap for Tuesday.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Showers and storms developing along greater portions of SETX and
parts of SWLA will continue through the early evening hours with a
generally SWly direction. Present storm activity aside, the near
and short term hazards remain with a Heat Advisory across SETX/SWLA
through 7PM CDT this evening. Confidence remains high Tuesday
temperatures will be little warmer along with a flux of decent RH.
Counties and Parishes have been upgraded to an Excessive Heat
Warning from 11AM to 7PM CDT (Tuesday) for Eastern Tx and central to
parishes of LA while also extending SE along the Atchafalaya basin
toward the coastal locations along Vermilion Bay. The remainder of
coastal SETX counties and southern LA Parishes will remain in a Heat
Advisory where conditions remain just shy of consistent
excessive heat criteria through the afternoon.

Wednesday, a stationary boundary extending along Central LA to the
GA/SC coast will begin to lift NE while a weak trough axis follows
behind lifting north from the coast to NELA. With sufficient RH and
instability in place, opportunities for showers/storms increase
through the mid afternoon with the most favorable locations
remaining along the Acadiana and Atchafalaya areas. Highs will be
tempered a few degrees lower, taking us out of heat headlines, for
the time being. That said, outside of showers and storms, heat
indices above 100F are not out of the question and appropriate
measures should still be taken to mitigate heat exhaustion. POPS
will decrease toward the evening hours leaving broad high pressure
in place which will continue to broaden eastward and consolidate of
the SECONUS / Eastern Seaboard into Thursday morning.

Kowalski/30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Near the end of the work week we will see the upper level ridge that
has remained over the Gulf Coast States start to shift off to the
east as a stronger trough makes its way south into the High Plains,
then moves across into the Great Lakes Region. A cold front will
also move close to the region, however it will not make its way
south into the area. With the ridge flattening/weakening a bit, we
can look forward to an uptick in rain chances in the afternoon and
evening timeframe along with a decrease in temperatures. It should
be noted that temperatures will remain above average for the
duration of the period, however they will be borderline Heat
Advisory criteria at best.

Regarding the tropics and the forecast as a whole, confidence still
remains low as we get closer to the weekend and beyond that point.
The latest model guidance generally show the upper ridge over the
southeastern seaboard and extending into parts of the eastern to
central Gulf with the aforementioned trough pushing southward as
Beryl moves into the Bay of Campeche. However, guidance as of the
moment keeps it trekking west / northwest into Mexico. Again, and
this cannot be stressed enough, confidence in track forecast remains
low and this is something that will be closely monitored through this
week.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A very moist and unstable environment will remain in place over
the forecast area until shortly after sunset. Therefore, there is
a chance for showers or thunderstorms that are out there to
continue or for further redevelopment through about the 02/02-03z
time frame.

After 02/03z, atmosphere should be stable enough that just VFR
conditions with mainly high level clouds and light and variable
winds are expected through the night.

On Tuesday, chances for showers and storms during max daytime
heating look best over the lower Atchafalaya Basin, therefore,
will mention PROB30 groups for KLFT/KARA after 02/19z.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Rain chances will increase over coastal waters starting today as
a weak surface boundary moves down into the region. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected with elevated
winds and seas as hazards near storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  98  77  96 /  10  20   0  40
LCH  78  95  79  91 /  10  30   0  60
LFT  79  98  81  93 /  40  50  10  80
BPT  78  96  79  93 /  30  20   0  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     LAZ027>029-033-044-045-055-153-154-253-254.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ030>032-073-
     074-141>143-152-241>243-252.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ180-
     259-260.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ201-261-262-
     515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...07