Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
057 FXUS64 KLCH 272031 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 331 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Afternoon surface analysis shows a weak boundary draped across the northeastern edge of the CWA, resulting in a more northerly flow at AEX while W to SW flow continues elsewhere. South of this boundary, dewpoints are in the mid to upper 70s, while dewpoints across AEX and Ft. Johnson currently sit around 70 degrees. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a decent swath of mid-level dry air draped across roughly the lower 2/3rd of the forecast area, along a rough line extending from near/south of Beaumont to Alexandria. This dry air has kept shower activity mostly at bay across southwest and south central LA today, while on the contrary, showers have steadily increased in coverage across inland SE TX through the last few hours. Although some CAMs guidance wants to induce shower activity across Acadiana through the next couple of hours, this seems rather unlikely beyond a very light shower or two due to the presence of dry air overhead. Regardless, expect any lingering convection to taper off post- sunset this evening per-usual, giving way to another warm and muggy night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Tomorrow into the weekend mid-level ridging will begin to slowly build back overhead from the west. Ridging overhead will likely be fairly weak tomorrow, before settling overhead by Saturday. This will result in decent rain chances tomorrow, especially across Acadiana where any influence from the ridge will be less. By Sat, rain chances reduce further area-wide, but Acadiana still looks to have the best chance out of anybody. Any precip tomorrow and Saturday will be typical pop-up daytime heating showers, with coverage peaking through the afternoon and dying with sunset. Temperature wise, we again warm into the low to mid 90s both tomorrow and Saturday, while overnight lows fall into the mid 70s to low 80s. Heat indices look borderline for an advisory tomorrow, mainly for interior SE TX, with an advisory looking more likely for Saturday for a larger portion of the region. 17 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 By Sunday, the an upper level ridge of high pressure situated over the Southern Plains continues to build with a slight shift of the center ridge axis toward the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile a downstream low pressure complex north of Maine will extend a frontal boundary across the Appalachia to the ARKALEX with generally more humid / unstable remaining south of the frontal boundary. Thus, while mid to upper level dry layers are expected, Isolated to scattered surface based convection is not out of the question which currently has been favored toward the Acadiana region leading into eastern portions of LA. Heat will also be a likely headline with temperatures nearing 100F and Heat Indices breaching 110F among the interior SETX counties and some interior SWLA parishes which will likely be realized for locations outside of any precipitation or prolonged cloudy cover. Similar conditions are expected to persist Monday with winds veering a little more SWly throughout the day, however, signals of precipitation appear to be less with little to no forcing mechanism amid forecast persisting ridge. Thus heat related headlines appear favorable into the early work week. Hereafter continuing through the remainder of the mid week, temperatures will continue to remain very warm to hot in the mid to upper 90s, with the upper ranges keep to the interior counties and parishes. POPS do not fully exit the forecast area, but the more favorable signal for organized precipitation tend to drop off with Isolated diurnal convection more favorable along coastal / southern portions of the TX and LA. Meanwhile the upper level high pressure ridge shows signs of breaking down toward the end of the week. Kowalski/30 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Light west to southwest winds and mainly VFR ceilings will prevail through the afternoon. A few isolated showers will be possible through the next few hours as well, mainly for the I-10 terminals. Some of this convection may become heavy at times and be capable of briefly reducing VIS if they move across the terminals. Shower activity should taper off with sunset with light winds and VFR ceilings then continuing through the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for mainly light onshore flow for the remainder of the week, to go along with mainly low seas. Through the next several days, scattered to occasionally widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 95 76 96 / 0 20 0 20 LCH 76 91 79 91 / 20 40 10 20 LFT 76 92 79 93 / 40 70 10 40 BPT 77 93 79 93 / 10 30 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...17