Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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210 FXUS64 KLCH 281750 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1250 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 An upper ridge is centered over West Texas this morning while the trough that has been over the eastern sections of the CONUS has shifted to along or just off the east coast. A narrow upper disturbance/shear axis extends from outer banks of NC to the coast of LA. The upper ridge axis extends east-northeast into the Ozarks and mid-Mississippi Valley. At the surface a weak trough is roughly across the I-10 corridor in SE TX and LA. Near calm to very light northeast winds with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are north of the interstate with light south winds and dewpoints in the upper 70s to around 80 are along the coast. Scattered to numerous showers and a few storms are along the boundary. The subtropical ridge extends from the Atlantic and into the gulf. Through sunrise the convection along the weak boundary is expected to maintain itself, but dissipate somewhat after sunrise. The trough is anticipated to gradually lift north today as the subtropical ridge nudges in. Convection across the northern zones is expected to be suppressed being closer to the upper ridge, however another round of convection may occur along the coast as the sea breeze develops in the late morning to afternoon timeframe. Enough cloud cover and ever so slightly lower dewpts may keep most of the northern zones out of heat adv criteria, however interior SE TX will likely have spotty 108-109 apparent temps this afternoon since clouds and convection will be most limited there. The upper ridge will build east across the South this weekend. While isolated to scattered afternoon convection is anticipated Saturday and Sunday due to the high amount of moisture and the ridge not being directly overhead, higher dewpoints will have advected back into interior SE TX and Cen LA. This may increase apparent temps a few degrees from Friday and creating the need for a heat adv across more zones. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Generally there isn`t much going on in the longterm forecast period. Global models are pretty confident in a strong high pressure ridge sitting right overtop the region from at least July 1 (Monday) to about the 3rd or 4th. Surface high pressure ridging appears to amble about the eastern seaboard and northeast US. Deep surface moisture should remain entrenched in the area and without a full shut down on convective potential from high pressure all the way to the surface, a decent chance of daily diurnal showers and thunderstorms can be expected. A parade of robust shortwave trofs moving over the nrn Plains states Wednesday and Thursday will likely perform two functions: wear and weaken upper high pressure ridge and shunt southward the surface high pressure area. As a result, a decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible starting the fourth (Thursday) and continuing into the fifth (Friday). Considering July Fourth is a week away and also a holiday largely celebrated outdoors, this forecaster`s confidence that celebrations won`t get rained out is low. For those planning outdoor activities, it is best to keep an eye on the rainfall and temperature forecast over the coming days. As for those temperatures... Forecast high temperatures look to hover in the mid to upper 90s for inland areas and low to mid 90s for coastal areas through the next work week. Normal high temps for the period are around 92 F, so temps will likely run a few degrees above normal. Humidity should also remain elevated next work week; combined with these high temperatures, expect cautionary Heat Statements to be in effect for at least some portions of the area. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Scattered showers and storms have continued to pop up in the vicinity of some of the southern terminals this afternoon. This activity will be tapering this evening. Overnight, some of the models are hinting at patchy fog. Confidence is low at the moment so it was not placed in the TAFs, however it gets a special mention in the afternoon discussion && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for mainly light onshore flow for the remainder of the week, to go along with mainly low seas. Through the next several days, scattered to occasionally widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 95 75 95 74 / 20 10 30 10 LCH 91 79 92 78 / 40 10 20 0 LFT 93 80 93 78 / 60 20 50 10 BPT 93 80 93 79 / 30 10 20 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-259-260. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...87