Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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838 FXUS64 KLCH 292050 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Aloft, we have two ridges. One is centered over Texas, elongated across the Gulf Coast States. The other is over the Atlantic Coast, extending into the Gulf Waters. Closer to the surface, we have areas of high pressure meandering about the region. With our setup, we can expect hot and humid conditions to carry on for the remainder of this forecast period. This afternoon, and consecutive afternoons in this period will see isolated to scattered showers and storms ramp up in the afternoon hours and taper in the evening with the loss of heating. Heat indices are in the triple digits right now and are well within our criteria for a Heat Advisory. We currently have a Heat Advisory in effect for most of the area that will expire tonight at 7PM tonight. With similar conditions expected each day, subsequent Heat Advisories (at a minimum) are likely. Stigger/87 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Tuesday continues to set the stage of a hot long range outlook with dewpoints remaining in the upper 70s throughout the forecast period as high temperatures meander between the mid to upper 90s across the board. A large surface high pressure becomes situated over New England which is forecast to merge with the Western Atlantic high pressure cell throughout the mid week. This pattern will allow the ridging extending SSW from Cape Cod toward the central Gulf of Mexico to broaden and shift East over Florida and the Appalachia Bay. Concurrently, the upper level ridge stretching across Carolinas West Arizona also slackens and broadens toward the end of the upcoming work week signaling that continued POPS, at least on an Isolated scale remain the forecast with some periodic absences. Locally, the main concern throughout the midweek will be relatively hot temperatures which may warrant additional heat related headlines trending into the long range. While remaining on the southern to southwestern periphery of the high pressure pattern, a weak frontal boundary will sink south of the TN Valley and stall over the Lower Mississippi Valley / Central LA area. Naturally, this boundary will provide additional focus for showers / thunderstorms to develop with the Acadiana / Atchafalaya region becoming the most favorable location for development. Do note, forecast PWATs in the atmospheric column above trending near 2.00. However, our forecast QPF, remains low as this signals for precip do not come in the form of an organized system, but rather isolated to scattered diurnal showers / storms which tend to cluster together. In some of these areas of heavier, clustered storms, it is not unlikely to see backyard rainfall amounts approach those PWAT values. However, it is highly dependent upon how progressive or not these features remain over the area. Wednesday, a brief, hardly noticeable, lowering of temperatures is forecast with some of the drier air mixing / evaporated remaining low level moisture. Sea breeze initiated showers and storms cannot be ruled out with the latest guidance keeping these POPS trending toward coastal locations. Interior SETX and SWLA continue to have more limited chances, but not zero through the mid and even late week time. By Friday, an upper level trough erodes the remaining high pressure locally with a developing shortwave deepening upstream along the western plains southeastward. Lastly, there are currently no tropical impacts forecast within the scope of the long range along SETX and SWLA. Kowalski/30 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Outside of impacts from isolated showers or storms, VFR conditions are ongoing and expected to prevail for the duration of this TAF period. We shall see a slight uptick in showers and storms over the afternoon hours before it tapers off this evening. Light patchy fog will not be out of the realm of possibility but was not placed in the TAFs due to low confidence. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for mainly light onshore flow to go along with mainly low seas. Through the next several days, scattered to occasionally widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 77 97 77 96 / 10 30 20 50 LCH 81 94 80 95 / 10 40 10 60 LFT 81 95 80 96 / 10 50 20 80 BPT 81 96 79 97 / 10 30 10 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-141>143-152>154-241>243. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...87