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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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433 FXUS63 KLBF 011128 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 628 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... *Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening *Another chance for severe weather Wednesday *Cooler temperatures for 4th of July and Friday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Have kept the warmest high temperatures for today across the far southern forecast area, just Chase, Hayes and Frontier counties with a sharp temperatures gradient of cooler temperatures as you move north. There is a little uncertainty just how far north the warm front will lift tomorrow afternoon, but looks to remain just south of interstate 80, thus have kept the warmest temperatures on the southern forecast area. North of the front temperatures will be in the 80s to even mid 70s across north central Nebraska. As for thunderstorms chances today. Lingering morning thunderstorms will be possible through the early morning hours, then the rest of the morning and early afternoon is expected to remain dry. Then expect thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon across western Nebraska, would expect most of the convection to hold off until after 3pm with development first across the Panhandle then moving east through the afternoon and evening. A SFC Low across the CO/NE/KS border is expected to deepen this afternoon then move eastward. Southwesterly flow will increase moisture to the area in the afternoon with dew points increasing to the upper 60s to low 70s for areas generally east of HWY 61. CAPE values will be around 2000 to 4000 J/kg in the afternoon and evening. Shear in the 0 to 6km layer will be around 45 to 50 kts. Expect severe storms to contain damaging winds and large hail and even a few tornadoes could be possible. The large hail threat is a little more uncertain of an environment as temperatures aloft will be quite warm, around 20 to 30 degrees celsius, leading to lower confidence in a large hail threat. There is also uncertainty of how far north the warm front will lift, will have to monitor as the area along and just north of the the front as this is where the most favorable environment for tornadic development will exist, especially with the initial more discrete supercell development, do expect as storms continue their eastward progression storm mode will become more linear. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A SW trof will move through the area on Tuesday and could see a few isolated thunderstorms develop, but don`t expect anything widespread. Focus then turns to Wednesday when a disturbance moves through the area Wednesday. There is the potential for strong to severe storms Wednesday evening across the forecast area and will need to continue to monitor. For those with plans on the 4th of July, it will be a cool with temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees below normal after a cold front passage. Highs will only reach the low to mid 70s across the northern Sandhills into north central Nebraska and further south into southwest Nebraska temperatures will only be in the low 80s. There will also be slight chances for showers and thunderstorms during the day across the northern Sandhills, but lower confidence in precipitation occurring after 6pm, thus at this time it is looking dry in the evening hours. Cooler temperatures will continue on Friday before temperatures return to near normal highs by the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The main forecast challenge for aviation continues to be fluctuating ceilings associated with passing showers and thunderstorms. Guidance overnight has consistently brought lower ceilings than observations, so have trended ceiling up more in line with observations. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected across western and north central Nebraska this afternoon and evening, though confidence in timing and exact location remains low, so have omitted from TAFs. Follow on forecasts may better resolve thunderstorms this evening, however confidence may not increase until storms initiate. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Richie