372
FXUS63 KLBF 011937
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
237 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather potential is the concern this afternoon and
  evening.

- Additional chances for scattered thunderstorms will come
  Wednesday afternoon and evening, possibly severe.

- Drier, cooler and more stable weather is expected Thursday and
  Friday. Moderating temperatures, back to normal for this time
  of year, for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The severe potential this afternoon and evening is the main concern
the next couple of days. Southwest flow aloft has increased across
the region as a shortwave embedded within the flow approaches. At
the surface, low pressure is deepening across northeast Colorado. A
warm front is lifting northward into far southwest Nebraska early
this afternoon. Low-level moisture is pooling north of the boundary
with surface dew points rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This
moisture will combine with afternoon heating and steep mid-level
lapse rates...creating very unstable conditions. There is a capping
inversion in place early this afternoon, but forcing from the
approaching shortwave should help to overcome the cap with
convection developing by mid-afternoon. The storm mode will
initially be supercells, with the area near and just north of the
warm front looking quite favorable for isolated tornado development.
The exact location of the warm front will have to be monitored
carefully this afternoon. Storms will likely grow upscale into more
of a line/QLCS type system as the activity tracks into central and
toward eastern Nebraska this evening. Damaging winds would become
the main concern as this occurs.

Other convection will likely develop within moist upslope flow
regime across the Panhandle. Initially these too may have supercell
characteristics, but these should grow into more of a loosely
organized cluster or line as they track into west central and
northern Nebraska by late this afternoon. This activity then weakens
by early evening with the main focus farther south near the warm
front.

Tuesday, a shortwave tracks across the northern plains and drives a
cold front and high pressure southward into the region. Despite the
surface high settling in, jet dynamics and moisture aloft will keep
the threat for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
around for much of the day.

As high pressure shifts east of the area Wednesday, return southerly
flow develops. This will bring a rapid increase in moisture back
into the area...with surface dew points rising into the upper 60s. A
weak shortwave will be approaching from the west, with a leeward
trough/dryline surging eastward across the Panhandle during the
afternoon. Convection will likely initiate along the advancing
surface trough...and then move east within a highly sheared
instability axis across western into southwest Nebraska during the
late afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Upper level low pressure will move slowly move across southern
Canada Thursday into the weekend. A cold front will slide southeast
through the area Thursday with a drier airmass moving into the area
Friday into the weekend. Only slight chances for precipitation are
expected during this time along with cooler temperatures. Highs
Thursday and Friday may struggle to get out of the lower to mid 70s
across northern Nebraska. Highs do moderate some for the weekend,
ranging from the 80s across northern Nebraska to the lower 90s
across southwest Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Lower MVFR and IFR ceilings will gradually lift across the area
this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
and linger into this evening. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail from late this afternoon through tonight and into
Tuesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor