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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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100 FXUS63 KLBF 291127 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... *Cooler temperatures this weekend *Isolated thunderstorms Sunday evening and overnight *Triple digits possible across SW Nebraska Monday *More widespread thunderstorm chances Monday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Today`s highs will be cooler with behind the cold front passage. High temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s across much of western and north central Nebraska. Isolated thunderstorms may continue in the morning hours, but then expect the rest of the day to remain dry. Temperatures will remain cool on Sunday across the Sandhills, north central and southwest Nebraska with temperatures in the mid 70s. Far western Nebraska will be slightly warmer as a warm front advances from the west, temperatures will reach the low 80s. As the warm front pushes east Sunday it will become the focus for some isolated thunderstorms Sunday evening into the overnight. Did lower PoPs from inherited forecast, CAPE is marginal, and shear is limited so there is some uncertainty on coverage of thunderstorm activity, think the better environment is going to be west in the Nebraska Panhandle. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 On Monday, Warm front will lift into central Nebraska with WAA behind the front warming temperatures into the 90s, east of the front, across north central Nebraska, cooler temperatures will remain with highs in the 80s. Triple digits will be possible across far southwest/southern Nebraska. A SW trof moves in from the west later in the day and could see the potential for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development Monday afternoon and evening. CAPE values will be around 1000 to 2000 J/kg Monday afternoon, increasing in the evening to 3500 J/kg or more in some locations. There will be decent deep layer shear and marginal lapse rates through the afternoon and evening hours, 2/3s of the eastern portion of the CWA is highlighted in a slight risk for Monday afternoon/evening. Storm mode is expected to be super cellular. After Monday, temperatures will become more seasonable with highs mostly in the upper 70s to 80s. The pattern still continues to be active with several disturbances moving through the week, leading to at least a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms daily through the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. A cold front pushed through western and north central Nebraska last night, setting up mostly northerly to northwesterly winds this afternoon. As the day progresses into the evening, winds will switch to easterly. Near the end of the TAF period, showers may begin to build across the region, which may briefly drop ceilings to MVFR. For now, will omit from the TAFs until confidence in timing increases. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Richie