Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
208 FXUS62 KKEY 011852 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 252 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 After the very wet morning across the Florida Keys, the afternoon has been much quieter. KBYX radar shows virtually all the rain that it was detecting earlier having dissipated. GOES 16 Visible satellite imagery shows just some cirrostratus cloud debris leftover. The cloud cover has kept temperatures in check today with the Island Chain observing lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. At the surface, the western periphery of the subtropical ridge extends into the Florida Keys. As a result, marine platforms around the Keys are observing east to southeast winds near 5 knots with Island Chain communities observing near 5 mph. .FORECAST... CIMSS Vorticity shows the lobe that was responsible for the earlier rain continues to slip to the southwest moving away from the area. For tonight, expect the Keys to remain quiet for at least the next several hours as the air mass over the region has been stabilized for the time being. It will take some time to destabilize again but some guidance is indicating more showers and storms during the wii hours of the morning to daybreak Tuesday. However, we are not expecting this to be nearly as widespread as it was this morning. A more normal summer-time pattern is expected to return starting tonight and continuing through the week. Therefore, the previous 40% from the earlier forecast package was maintained. For the remainder of the forecast package, an upper level ridge is expected to be the main driver of the pattern. Therefore, expect the typical summer-time chances for rain as moisture undulations move through the east to at times southeasterly flow with 30% through the week and weekend including the 4th of July holiday. Outside of the rain chances, expect more sunshine to return, therefore, temperatures will also rebound back to where they typically are for this time of the year. However, we will be teetering on the edge of Heat Advisories with highs in the lower 90s and dew points of 77 to 78 degrees. Therefore, there may be a couple times in the coming days where one of these may be issued. Lastly, Hurricane Beryl which is currently over the western Caribbean Sea as of the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) Advisory at 2 PM EDT, is expected to continue on its west- northwest trajectory. The projected path keeps the storm well south of the Florida Keys with it making its closest approach sometime Wednesday/Wednesday night. This will be when the gradient may tighten a bit resulting in a slight uptick in winds. Therefore, a possible breezy period is anticipated Wednesday evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Florida Keys. Hurricane Beryl will remain south of the Florida Keys as it marches west northwest through the Caribbean Sea Tuesday through Thursday. Breezes will freshen Wednesday and Wednesday night as Beryl makes its closest approach. Please review the Tropical Cyclone Advisories for additional information on the track and future evolution of Beryl. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Weather conditions will transition to a more normal pattern through tonight. As a result, shower and thunderstorm potential will taper off to seasonal norms. Surface winds will be light and variable to start, becoming a prevailing light southeasterly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 91 83 90 / 40 20 20 30 Marathon 83 92 83 92 / 40 30 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest