Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
223 FXUS62 KKEY 030932 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 532 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Things are fairly quiet along the Florida Keys this very early morning as the only noteworthy feature we have seen on radar has been the occasional pop up shower triggered by lingering boundaries in the area. It doesn`t look like any of these showers will have the opportunity to move over the island chain, so expect a dry morning. Previous forecast discussions have noted the high pressure that is dominating the weather pattern, and that will continue to be the case through the end of the week. We`ll keep the verbiage of slight chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, but to be more specific these showers and thunderstorms will depend on mesoscale forcing (such as outflow boundaries from other storms) due to the lack of synoptic scale forcing. The persistent easterly breezes will also continue due to the high pressure locations, but expect an increase from 10 to 15 mph this morning to 15 to 20 mph later tonight as Hurricane Beryls trek through the Caribbean Sea toward the Yucatan Peninsula will lead to a tighter pressure gradient. Winds diminish by tomorrow courtesy of Beryl`s fairly quick forward motion will allow for the gradient to slacken. Fortunately, these breezes will help to keep the air from feeling unbearably stagnant as dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will help push the heat index near, and occasionally above, 100F during the day. The later half of the weekend, and into the start of next week, is the timeframe that will continue to hold our interest as there is still some suggestion that an embedded cell in the tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) may break away, and retrograde westward toward Florida. That would help to initiate some wet weather here at home, so we have carried over the 30 percent PoPs from the previous forecast package for Sunday onward. The finer details such as how much rain we see, or how much areal coverage we can expect isn`t clear since that feature is nestled in the end of the forecast period, so any further elaboration will have to wait until we get a little closer to the start of next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 339 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes. Hurricane Beryl is well south of the Florida Keys, and this will remain the case, but breezes will briefly freshen through tonight as Beryl makes its closest approach to the Keys. As Beryl approaches the Bay of Campeche and the high shifts in the North Atlantic, gentle breezes will veer to the southeast over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 339 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR and easterly breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the morning. By 18-21Z, easterly winds will start to gust to near 20 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 83 92 84 / 20 20 20 20 Marathon 91 83 91 84 / 20 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....CLR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest