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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
285 FXUS62 KKEY 050238 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1038 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Currently - Deep layered ridging remains across the southeastern United States. The mid and upper level ridge reaches northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico into the Mid Atlantic. The surface ridge runs parallel and just off the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. The surface ridge`s reach into the Keys is being blunted by an inverted trough centered a bit north of the Bahamas. Meanwhile, Hurricane Beryl is pulling further away from the Keys as it tracks quickly westward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea on its way towards an overnight landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. This is resulting in winds trending downwards and are now gentle to moderate out of the east. This evenings sounding indicated seasonable CAPE, limited inhibition, and warm and humid surface conditions. However, moisture is marginal with a precipitable water of 1.8 inches with moisture lacking through the lower levels. All the above means the environment is not very supportive of convective proliferation. Activity that moved westward off of South Florida and the Bahamas have mostly dissipated and the island chain has remained dry. Short Term Update - Deep layered ridging will remain aligned to our north through the overnight period. However, the trough/low north of the Bahamas will cut the Keys off from any influence of from the surface ridge along the coast. Hurricane Beryl help to maintain gentle east to southeasterly breezes across the area, but with a downward trend as it moves further off. Forecast soundings suggest some lower level inhibition will strengthen through the overnight period and lower level moisture is expected to fall further. The combination of the weakening flow, increasing stability, and falling moisture should amount to slight chance for pops at best. Expect overnight lows to struggle to fall into the lower 80s with dew points remaining disgustingly high in the upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Surface ridging will hold on across the southeast while Hurricane Beryl steadily moves further westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula and further away from the Keys. As a result, expect marine winds to remain east to to southeasterly while gradually trending downwards. No changes planned for the evening marine update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Surface winds will be gentle out of the east. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest