644
FXUS63 KJKL 050800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Though an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through this
  morning, a better chances for thunderstorms will return later
  today, mainly during the afternoon hours.

- A few thunderstorms this afternoon to early evening could
  produce locally heavy rainfall and strong to damaging wind
  gusts.

- Somewhat cooler and less humid weather arrives behind a cold
  front over the weekend.

- Warmer and more humid conditions will make a noticeable comeback
  on Monday and continue into next week, along with a potential
  for more thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 140 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Did update the forecast per the latest radar and CAMs trends into
the day. In addition, the current obs and trends were added to the
T/Td/Sky grids. Finally, the fog was tweaked through dawn - mainly
for the river valleys. These adjustments have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and
SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1015 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2024

SPC Mesoanalysis depicts elevated instability, but also plentiful
convective inhibition across the forecast area. Given model
trends, have lowered PoPs to primarily low-end slight chance PoPs
for the overnight. There were no other significant changes
otherwise.

UPDATE Issued at 610 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2024

Thunderstorms in eastern KY have diminished in both coverage and
intensity over the past hour and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505 has
been allowed to expire early. Minor adjustments were made to the
forecast based on recent radar and satellite trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 549 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2024

Convection that had worked across northern sections of the area,
has weakened after producing some locally heavy rain and a couple
instances of wind damage as well. Current trends suggest
convection in the north and southeast should work east toward VA
and WV and diminish over the next couple of hours while
convection in south central KY works toward the Lake Cumberland
area. With a warm and moist airmass in place, an isolated shower
or storm could develop outside of these areas, but with meager mid
level lapse rates and weak shortwave to shift east over the next
couple of hours coverage of all convection should generally wane
toward sunset. With convection in the severe thunderstorm watch
having dwindled some cancellations will be upcoming.

An upstream cold front will approach the lower OH Valley tonight
and work across the OH Valley region including the Commonwealth on
from Friday into Friday night ahead of a more robust shortwave
trough. Some showers or storms will remain possible in the warm
sector tonight, though coverage should peak again on Friday
afternoon to early evening ahead of the cold front and associated
mid level wave. Pre convective MLCAPE may be as high as 2000 to
2500 J/kg with bulk shear during the afternoon on the order of 25
to 35KT. Mid level lapse rates should be 6C/km or less, but low
level lapse rates could be in the 7C to 8C/km range given
sufficient heating into the 80s to perhaps near 90. Some CAMS
such as the 18Z HRRR suggest the potential for some potentially
robust activity from midday into the afternoon or a bit later than
earlier runs and wind gusts should be the primary threat and
locally heavy rain also possible with PW in the 2 to 2.25 inch
range. SPC has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday
and this will continue to be highlighted in the HWO.

As the front shifts east on Friday night along with the associated
shortwave trough, chances for convection will diminish from west
to east as the night progresses.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Surface high pressure will continue to nudge into the region for the
start of the forecast period. With surface high pressure in place,
temperatures will be back on the rise with highs climbing into the
upper-80s to low-90s for Sunday. Surface high pressure will nudge
off to the east on Monday with enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of
an approaching shortwave. Temperatures on Monday are forecast to be
warmer as highs are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s, coupled
with warm, moist southwesterly flow, heat indices will be
approaching 100 degrees to over 100 in isolated locations.

Models have come into better agreement with a positively tilted
trough approaching the area. At the surface, a surface low will be
tracking through the Upper Great Lakes. Along and ahead of the
front, increasing showers and thunderstorms are likely. As the low
tracks through the Great Lakes, the front will dive southeast
through the CWA. Forecast soundings, sampled ahead of the front show
a marginally severe atmosphere. Can`t rule out a severe storm or two
but overall, pre-FROPA environment appears to be a poor supportive
environment for severe storms. Models continue to remain in very
good agreement post-frontal Wednesday as deterministic runs keep PoP
chances through the end of the forecast period and even possibly
bring the remnants of Hurricane Beryl to the forecast area for the
end of the forecast period.

Overall, the period will highlighted with periods of showers and
thunderstorms that`ll bring much needed rain to the area. Also,
temperatures will return to more seasonal ranges as daytime highs in
the mid-80s to low-90s and overnight lows ranging from the upper-50s
to upper-60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Just a scant chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm into dawn.
However, valley fog will be around, though the extent of cloud
cover will be a limiting factor, but reductions to MVFR or IFR
are expected for a time in much of the river valleys. At this
point this should have little impact on the TAF sites. Look for a
lower CIG (but still likely VFR) to develop by late morning for
most of eastern Kentucky with a decent shot at some convection
impacting the TAF sites. For now have gone with VCTS for much of
the midday to early evening with better timing to be refined
further as we get closer to the times of higher threat. Winds will
average 10 kts or less, outside of any convection, generally from
south to southwest.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF