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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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864 FXUS62 KJAX 010610 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 210 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 916 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Daytime convection is still holding on over inland areas, but should begin to wean rather quickly in the next hour or two. Some outflow from convection that occurred today north of inland southeast GA counties may spawn a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm as it enters this area around the 10 PM to midnight time frame. However, not expecting this activity to hold together very long with the lack of low level instability. Otherwise, some lingering debris clouds will mostly dissipate during the overnight hours with seasonably mild low temps. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Showers are slowly developing from the west along the I-10 corridor and over SE GA. With a moist atmosphere in place, current PWAT values hovering around 2", scattered showers and storms are expected to continue to develop this afternoon into early evening, mainly for locations across SE GA and eastward towards US-301 in NE FL. Potential hazards for any storms that do develop include downburst winds of 40-50mph, frequent lightning, as well as heavy downpours that may result in localized flooding, particularly at urban and normally flood prone locations. The Heat Advisory will remain in place through late afternoon for portions of SE GA, as Heat Index values currently are reading from 103F to 108F and will look to continue to rise before showers and storms begin to develop during the mid afternoon. By the evening, temperatures will begin to lower into the low to mid 70s across the inland areas, with coastal areas residing from the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A cold front over central GA gradually sags southward on Monday before stalling and diffusing over SE GA on Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms develop each day along the sea breezes and the frontal boundary. This boundary and mesoscale collisions will provide the focus for stronger convection with the potential for isolated strong/severe storms being possible Monday afternoon/evening mainly over SE GA. Deep tropical moisture (PWATs 2.2 - 2.7 in.) ahead of the front will result in storms capable of producing heavy rainfall with a potential for flooding especially in SE GA. Localized areas could see rain amounts in the 2-4 in. range especially where storms train. High temperatures for the beginning of the week will be in the 90s for most inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coast and for areas behind the frontal boundary. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 70s over inland areas and in the upper 70s along the coastline. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 High pressure aloft and drier air shift over the region in the wake of the weakening front lowering storm coverage and allowing a warming trend through the weekend. Lingering tropical moisture on Wednesday will result in numerous showers and storms developing along the sea breezes. Convection becomes more scattered Thursday into the weekend with drier north-northeasterly flow. The greatest chances for storms will be over north-central FL where PWATs remain 2+ inches. Highs in the low-mid 90s mid-week quickly rise into the mid-upper 90s by Friday. Potential for heat advisory conditions will continue and become more likely by the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Multilayered VFR clouds over most of the TAF sites at this time with any weak convection further to the west or northwest of the terminals at 06z. Seeing some potential for MVFR or IFR cigs occurring over the next few hours, mainly around SSI, JAX, GNV, and VQQ as the airmass remains moist and weak southwest low level flow near 5-10 kt prevails. Already seeing some scattered decks at 1-2 kft around SSI. Will monitor for possible updates to lower cigs. Otherwise, another day of scattered to numerous showers and storms with the best chances generally near and west of a line from SSI-JAX-GNV. At this time, introduced PROB30 groups generally from 18z-23z, possibly extending a bit longer til about 00z-01z for JAX and VQQ. Anticipate at least VCSH around 02z and a slow decrease in convection through 06z. At least MVFR can be expected in the convection. Sfc winds will be light southwest to south through the morning and then transition to southeast along the coastal TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Atlantic high pressure will sink southward tonight as a frontal boundary approaches our local waters from the north. Offshore winds will prevail ahead of this approaching frontal boundary, except near shore, where the Atlantic sea breeze will push inland this afternoon. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the evening hours today, mainly over the near shore waters. The frontal boundary will stall over the Georgia waters on Tuesday, with increasing chances for mainly afternoon and nighttime showers and thunderstorms across our local waters. Prevailing winds will shift to east and southeasterly beginning on Tuesday as high pressure builds down the southeastern seaboard. High pressure will then weaken as it shifts southward towards our local waters later this week. Rip Currents: A low end moderate rip current risk at area beaches through Monday, as onshore flow and a dominant easterly swell of continues. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Deep tropical moisture over the region will lead to heavy downpours from convection especially along and ahead of an approaching frontal boundary from the north. WPC has placed portions of SE GA in a slight risk of excessive rainfall for Monday. Localized areas could see rain amounts in the 2-4 in. range especially where storms train. Depending on rainfall amounts today, a Flood Watch may be needed for portions of SE GA for Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 74 88 73 / 80 60 60 30 SSI 90 78 88 78 / 70 70 70 50 JAX 94 75 92 76 / 50 50 70 40 SGJ 93 77 92 78 / 40 40 60 40 GNV 92 74 92 74 / 50 30 70 20 OCF 92 75 93 76 / 50 30 70 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$