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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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359 FXUS62 KJAX 011624 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1224 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...WIDESPREAD DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .UPDATE... Issued at 1224 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Noon surface analysis depicts a cold front stretching from the Ozarks eastward to the Carolinas that is decelerating as it pushes into the Deep South. Meanwhile, strong high pressure (1030 millibars) was building over the Great Lakes region in the wake of this frontal boundary. Aloft..."Heat Wave" ridging remains centered along the Red River Valley of northern Texas, with this feature continuing to expand into the southeastern states. Otherwise, troughing was progressing southeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic states and coastal New England. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deep tropical moisture prevails throughout our region, with PWATS generally in the 2 - 2.2 inch range, except for north central FL, where values were in the 1.8 - 2 inch range. Slow moving, low- topped showers were developing within this very humid air mass along portions of the U.S. Highway 301 corridor in southeast GA, while convection developing along the Gulf coast sea breeze along the FL Big Bend and Nature Coasts remains nearly stationary over Levy and Dixie Counties, while showers were developing ahead of this sea breeze boundary across southern portions of the Suwannee Valley early this afternoon. Temperatures at 16Z were mostly in the low to mid 80s across southeast GA, with values rising to the 85-90 degree range elsewhere for northeast and north central FL. Dewpoints were in the mid to upper 70s at most locations. Our area will remain within a col region aloft during this afternoon as "Heat Wave" ridging remains centered to the west of our area and troughing progresses southeastward and offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. The frontal boundary will get pushed southward across the Altamaha River this evening before support aloft wanes, as troughing exits into the Atlantic and ridging aloft nudges eastward over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Light winds within the aforementioned col region overhead will result in slow moving downpours developing this afternoon, with activity likely developing along a lingering low level trough that is situated along U.S. Highway 84 in southeast GA, with additional scattered convection being generated by the inland moving Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze boundaries. Short-term, high resolution model guidance continues to target the U.S. Highway 301 corridor in southeast GA for excessive rainfall potential, where a quick 2-4 inches with locally higher totals will be possible in a corridor from Nahunta and Blackshear northeastward to Jesup and Darien through this evening. Mesoscale boundary collisions may shift another axis of heavy downpours southward along the I-10 and I-75 corridors through the evening hours, where a widespread 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts will be possible for locations such as Macclenny, Lake City, Live Oak, and Gainesville. Some of this activity will attempt to shift towards the I-95 corridor after sunset before waning towards midnight. The morning sounding at Jacksonville revealed a steep lapse rate in the mid-levels, with a pocket of mild and dry air above this layer. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through early this evening, with wet microbursts potentially bringing wind gusts up to the 40-60 mph range, along with frequent lightning strikes and slow moving downpours. High temperatures will generally climb to the lower 90s this afternoon before thunderstorm coverage increases. Convective coverage will diminish towards midnight, with debris cloudiness thinning out overnight across northeast and north central FL, while low stratus clouds likely develop during the predawn and early morning hours along the stalling frontal boundary across southeast GA. Lows tonight will generally fall to the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s at coastal locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Pattern of scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue through midweek as the weakening frontal boundary stalls to the north over Georgia. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rains with a potential for localized flooding as PWAT values ahead of the frontal boundary will measure between about 2.2 to 2.6 inches through midweek. High temperatures for this period will be in the 90s for most inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coast and for inland areas of southeast Georgia north of Waycross. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 70s over inland areas and in the upper 70s along the coastline. Heat advisory conditions may be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday as heat index levels rise to 108 and above during peak daytime heating. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Diurnal convection will become less widespread By Thursday and Friday as high pressure situated to the northeast acts to draw drier air over the forecast area from out of the north. Models currently show some disparity as to the placement of drier air by the end of the weekend, with a potential for more widespread diurnal convective developments on Sunday. Daily high temperatures will rise to near record high temperatures during the latter part of the week and into the weekend, with heat index values expected to reach Heat Advisory levels through the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected to persist off and on through the morning hours with showers and storms building in by around 18-19z today. Potential for strong to severe storms forming over SE GA and NE FL today with storms capable of producing heavy localized rainfall. Convection will become more dispersed for most sites by around 01-02z however overnight storms are possible, however low ceilings and vicinity thunderstorms may persist for SSI through into Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A frontal boundary will approach our local waters from the north through tonight. Breezy south to southwest winds will prevail ahead of this approaching frontal boundary through tonight. The frontal boundary will stall over the Georgia waters on Tuesday and dissipate, with increasing chances for mainly afternoon and nighttime showers and thunderstorms across our local waters. Prevailing winds will shift to east and southeast beginning on Tuesday through Wednesday as high pressure builds down the southeastern seaboard. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore during the next several days. High pressure will then weaken as it shifts southward towards our local waters later this week. Rip Currents: Onshore winds developing in the wake of the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze will combine with a persistent, long period easterly ocean swell to create a lower end moderate rip current risk at all area beaches through at least Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Breezy southwesterly transport winds for locations along and south of Interstate 10 this afternoon will create fair to good daytime dispersion values. Lighter east to southeasterly transport winds across inland southeast GA will result in generally poor daytime dispersion values. Breezy onshore surface winds will develop in the wake of the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon along the I-95 corridor. Transport winds will shift to southerly for locations along and south of I-10 on Tuesday, with light speeds generally resulting in fair daytime dispersion values, while easterly transport winds across southeast GA create poor to fair daytime dispersion values. Surface and transport winds will then shift to east-southeasterly area-wide on Wednesday, with fair daytime dispersion values forecast by the afternoon hours at most locations. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Deep tropical moisture over the region will lead to heavy downpours from convection especially along and ahead of an approaching frontal boundary/trough from the north. WPC has placed SE GA in a slight risk of excessive rainfall today. Localized areas could see rain amounts of 3 inches, with higher amounts of 5 inches possible. A Flood Watch was introduced for a few southeast GA counties for this threat. Refinements to the watch may be needed later today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 74 88 73 / 70 60 60 40 SSI 90 79 86 78 / 50 50 60 40 JAX 92 75 91 74 / 70 60 70 40 SGJ 91 77 90 77 / 40 40 50 30 GNV 91 74 92 74 / 70 50 60 40 OCF 91 74 92 75 / 70 40 60 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-151>153. AM...None. && $$