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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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006 FXUS62 KJAX 051122 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 722 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Heat Advisory today for inland zones (generally west of the Highway 301 corridor) where afternoon peak heat index values near 110 degrees before slow moving scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms briefly bring some cooler temperatures with convective outflows. Farther toward the Atlantic coast, satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) indicated values of < 1.6 inches advancing SSW across coastal SE GA and approaching the NE FL coast, while deeper PWAT of > 2 inches continued across our inland zones. The main difference in the weather today will be a downward trend in coastal rain chances compared to recent days given the intrusion of drier air from the east, while the higher rain chances will focus inland through the afternoon and evening hours. Very weak 700-1000 mb steering flow < 5 kts will bring the threat of locally heavy rainfall as boundaries merge and resultant storms linger with slow, erratic drifting into the early evening as diurnal instability fades. Not much mid or upper level dynamics or instability to favor severe storm potential today. Precipitation will fade inland through midnight, trailed by dry conditions and ground fog through daybreak Saturday. High temperatures will range above normal from the low 90s coast to mid 90s inland. Muggy overnight low temperatures will range in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Saturday, a cold front will slowly approach the area and help to bring above normal moisture levels back across Atlantic coast with a weak pressure pattern allowing the Atlantic and Gulf coast seabreezes to move inland and merge near highway 301. With warm mid level temperatures, not expecting severe T`storms, but high PWAT values over the 90th percentile will promote very efficient rainfall rates with slow storm motion due to mid to upper level ridging over the eastern Gulf adjacent to the FL peninsula allowing for localized heavy rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches which may lead to minor flooding in urban and low lying areas. Strong wind gust potential will T`storms along with frequent lightning. Light east to southeast winds 5-10 mph will move onshore behind the Atlantic seabreeze with light SW winds behind the Gulf seabreeze. Highs will rise into the mid 90s away from the coast with low 90s at the beaches. Heat index values will be in the 105-110 degree range near heat advisory levels. Saturday night, T`storms should end by midnight inland with very light southerly winds turning near calm well after sunset. Multi level cloud cover from fading T`storms will slowly disperse overnight to partly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 at the coast. Sunday will feature similar conditions with the cold front a bit closer, extending into southern GA, but should be stopped from further progress due to the mid to upper level ridging over the eastern Gulf/FL peninsula. With the weak surface pressure gradient, both seabreezes should merge inland with locally heavy rainfall creating potential localized flooding concerns due to the high moisture content and slow storm motions. Highs will be a only a degree or two lower compared to Saturday due to more numerous to widespread T`storm coverage and mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon/early evening hours with low to mid 90s inland and around 90 at the coast. Heat index values will range 104-108 degrees, again nearing heat advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Not much change in the forecast pattern into next week as mid to upper level ridging remains entrenched from the central Gulf coast into the coastal SE. Bermuda high pressure ridging will build into South FL and bring more southwesterly weak low level steering over the area, focusing the highest coverage of T`storms to the I-95 corridor as the Gulf seabreeze progresses towards the east coast before merging with the pinned Atlantic seabreeze with locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and some strong wind gusts from wet downbursts. Temperatures will begin the period near normal Monday and Tuesday with highs in the lower 90s and and then warm to above normal the rest of the week as highs inland reach the mid 90s with isolated upper 90s not out of the question. Lows will be a little above normal in the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 at the immediate coast and St Johns river basin. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 716 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Typical summer conditions across the region with widely scattered, slow moving afternoon and evening thunderstorms generated by the sea breeze fronts and ultimately sea breeze front convergence near I-75 this evening. For now other than KGNV will start with VCTS and if necessary amend the TAFs around 15 utc. Otherwise will have some TEMPOs to account for this morning`s mist/haze and then the normal KVQQ fog/mist tomorrow a.m. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 High pressure will extend across north Florida today and tonight as a frontal boundary shifts southward across Georgia. Sea breezes will move inland this afternoon from both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Saturday, the front will shift across south Georgia and linger through mid-week next week, with an increase in mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms and continued southerly winds. Rip Currents: Rip current assessments from near shore buoys indicated a solid Moderate risk for today for all NE FL and SE GA beaches with a continued ESE swell of 1-2 ft but with periods now 9-10 seconds compared to 12-13 seconds yesterday. A moderate rip current risk is expected through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Above average max/min temps are expected through Saturday with the record high minimums not too far off the forecast min temps in the mid 70s. Below are some record high minimum temperatures that may be challenged for select climate sites: July 5: KGNV: 75/2023 July 6: KJAX: 79/1902 KGNV: 78/1900 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 75 94 75 / 60 30 60 30 SSI 91 79 91 79 / 10 10 40 20 JAX 95 76 94 76 / 40 10 60 20 SGJ 92 77 92 77 / 30 10 50 20 GNV 93 74 94 73 / 80 40 60 20 OCF 94 75 93 76 / 80 40 60 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-030-031-035-120-136-140-220-236-240-322-340- 422-522. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>134-149-162-163-250-350-364. AM...None. && $$