Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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161 FXUS62 KJAX 290741 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 341 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY... ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Anomalously high moisture continues over the area with PWAT values remaining around 2 inches the past few days, and relatively warm temps aloft with 500 mb temps at about -6C. Low level flow remains light south and the 925 mb ridge is across the southern FL peninsula. The ridge will lift a bit northward today and allow the Atlantic sea breeze to push further inland. Thus, anticipate the bulk of the higher rain chances today to shift a bit further west, and still have rain chances around the 60-80 percent range, with the best chances over inland northeast FL. The main area of more concentrated storms may be around and just west of the Highway 301 corridor. Afternoon MLCAPE of about 1500-2000 J/kg appears likely. The main threats with any of the storms will be gusty downburst winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall/localized flooding, given the higher PWATs and dewpoints. We can`t rule out an isolated, brief severe storm today given the high instability, but shear values, as is typical for summer, remains low. Highs today will be in the lower 90s, with upper 80s near the coast, and giving heat indices of about 105, below heat advy criteria. Tonight, scattered convection expected mainly in the evening hours and should diminish after midnight. There will likely remain a threat of a couple of showers or even a t-storm after midnight as a trough of low pressure across GA and low level convergence supports precip chances. Lows tonight expected in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Pattern for deep-layer moisture will continue into the end of the weekend with stronger diurnal convection expected to develop in conjunction with the afternoon sea breeze, storm outflow boundaries, and areas of collision. Predominant PWAT levels will range between 2 and 2.5 inches through the period, resulting in increased chances for storms with heavy localized rainfall. High temperatures for this period will rise into the mid 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s and lower 90s for areas along the shoreline with a potential for Heat Advisory conditions during the day on Sunday with heat index values rising up to 110 degrees in some areas. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 70s for inland areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s along the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A cold front will press down from out of the north at the beginning of next week and then stall in the vicinity of Georgia before Wednesday. The drier air mass along with high pressure ridging will result in drier conditions starting by midweek. The pattern of building diurnal convection will carry into this period with convective developments associated with sea breeze boundaries and areas of collision becoming more inhibited later in the week as PWAT and humidity values decrease. Daily high temperatures are expected to experience a warming trend next week with max temps rising into the upper 90s by the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Some patchy fog and some stratus will be possible in and around VQQ and GNV early this morning otherwise VFR clouds anticipated through the early morning hours. Once again, elevated chances for showers and storms today at about 50-80 percent chance, mainly mid and late aftn hours. Best chances generally expected to be for VQQ and GNV, but have TEMPO groups of TSRA for all TAFs today. Light and variable winds this morning will eventually turn southeast 5-10 kt for the coastal TAFs as the sea breeze develops during the aftn hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Winds will remain southerly through the rest of the weekend, with enhanced winds from the southeast to south during the afternoon and evening hours as the sea breeze develops. Seas of about 2-3 ft will prevail. Some stronger southerly winds expected Monday and Tuesday to about 10-15 kt, possibly a bit stronger in the late aftn. Should see a weak cool front move down from the north to south late Tuesday and into Wednesday, with flow transitioning to southeast and east by Wednesday. Rip Currents: Another low-end moderate risk of rip currents of with surf near 2 ft today and Sunday, with 2 ft wind-sea from the east-southeast at 9-10 seconds and a 1-2 ft wind wave at 4 seconds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 75 95 76 / 60 30 70 40 SSI 91 78 90 78 / 60 30 60 30 JAX 92 75 93 76 / 70 30 70 30 SGJ 90 75 92 76 / 70 40 80 30 GNV 91 73 92 73 / 80 40 80 30 OCF 92 75 92 75 / 80 40 80 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$