211
FXUS64 KJAN 012325 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
625 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Tonight and Tuesday: Mid afternoon surface analysis showed a dry
cold front along and just north of the Interstate 20 corridor. This
front has brought in slightly drier air knocking dew points into the
mid 60s across our northeast and into the lower 70s just behind the
front. Model consensus stalls the front tonight along the Interstate
20 corridor. The low level flow ahead of the front is already
northerly and limiting convergence along the front but a low chance
of an isolated shower ahead of the front will remain possible
through late afternoon. South of the front a hot and moist airmass
has led to the continuation of high heat index values. An excessive
Heat Warning for our southwest and a Heat Advisory across the south
will remain in effect through 8PM. Dry weather is expected tonight.
Tuesday with the mid level ridge centered overhead and return flow
by afternoon, the stalled frontal boundary will drift back to the
north. This will allow for more of our CWA to top out in the upper
90s to near 100F and combine with high humidity to result in high
heat index values again. An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued
for our southwest again where heat index values will exceed 110F.
Wrapping around the Excessive Heat Warning, another Heat Advisory
will be in effect. This area is generally along and south of a line
from Bastrop to Laurel. By late afternoon isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across our southern zones
while the remainder of the CWA remains dry. /22/

Tuesday night through next Monday...

By Tuesday night, low level ridging will build in from the
southeast, allowing for moist, southerly flow to increase across the
Lower Mississippi River Valley. At the mid-levels, a persistent high
pressure will continue to migrate over the Southeast Region. PWATs
upwards of 2.5 inches will allow for deep moisture to infiltrate the
CWA. Showers and storms will increase Wednesday morning into the
afternoon, with isolated to numerous potential for precipitation
possible. The highest chance is expected to across southeast MS,
while isolated chances remain over the NE LA/SE AR, and NE MS
through the evening. By Thursday into Friday, isolated to scattered
showers will remain mostly possible across the CWA during peak
heating hours, then taper off by the evening hours. Highs through
Friday will remain in the middle up upper 90s while lows will
struggle to stay below the middle to upper 70s. Dangerous heat
concerns will continue into the end of the week as most of the CWA
will experience heat indices ranging 105-110+. An "Elevated" risk
for dangerous heat is being advertised with the high possibility of
an areawide Heat Advisory during those days.

By the weekend, a weak frontal system is expected to drop a boundary
into the central portions of the area. This will bring scattered to
numerous showers and storms across the CWA on Saturday and will
temporarily offer some relief from humid conditions going into the
next work week for areas mostly along and north of I-20. South of
those areas, heat indices may still reach Heat Advisory criteria,
but noticeably less humid and heat stress conditions are likely.  By
Monday, scattered precipitation chances will hang around as low
level flow switches from westerly to southerly, allowing for PWATs
to be increased going into the week. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with mainly
light wind. Isolated SHRA or TS cannot be ruled out Tue afternoon
in the HBG/PIB area, with brief categorical reductions possible.
/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  97  78  95 /   0  10   0  40
Meridian      68  99  75  94 /   0  10  10  50
Vicksburg     72  98  78  97 /   0   0   0  20
Hattiesburg   75 100  78  94 /  10  30  10  70
Natchez       75  98  78  94 /  10  10   0  40
Greenville    69  97  78  98 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     68  97  78  97 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ040>043-048-049-
     054>056-062>066-072>074.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ047-048-
     053>055-059-061>066-072>074.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ047-
     053-059>061.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ060.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ016-
     023>026.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     LAZ023>026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

22/AJ/DL