077
FXUS64 KJAN 280559
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1259 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Showers have ended and expect diminishing cloud cover to help
cool the moist boundary layer and develop patchy areas of fog
overnight into the early morning. Any fog that develops shouldn`t
be significant and will hold off on any distinct messaging at
this point. Otherwise, all is generally on track and no
significant adjustments have been made to the near term forecast.
/EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Tomorrow:

A stalled boundary draped across the Pine Belt should lead to
some redevelopment of showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. Weak
lapse rates will once again be the question, thus severity will
be limited. Much like today, heating could modify this, and given
around 20 kts of flow and the presence of a boundary, there could
be an isolated stronger storm. Activity should taper off with
waning heating.

Further north and west, upper ridging begins to build in and will
limit rain chances. Temperatures and dewpoints will also be on the
rise, resulting in heat indices in the Delta around 105-108.
Given this, have opted to issue a heat advisory for tomorrow
afternoon and will continue to message elevated heat stress in
HWO. Another stretch of greater heat is likely into the weekend.
/SAS/

Saturday through Thursday:

The primary weather concerns through the middle of next week will be
dangerous heat and mainly diurnal thunderstorm activity. The
prevailing synoptic feature in the region will be the subtropical
ridge. The core of the ridge will begin the weekend flattened and
centered over the Southern High Plains. This will favor continued
heat concerns especially for Louisiana, Arkansas, and western
Mississippi where the ridge`s strength will be most pronounced and
low-level thermal profile enhances warming potential. Closer to teh
Gulf Coast, more tropical conditions and easterly wave activity will
keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
As the upper-level ridge pivots eastward along the Gulf Coast, a
shortwave trough over the Midwest will nudge a cold front into our
region late Sunday into Monday. Rain chances will increase Sunday
with convergence ahead of the front, and then expect humidity and
accompanying higher heat indices and POPs to be confined to the far
south on Monday. Tuesday will be transitional as the ridge moves
overhead, but some recovery of humidity should occur. And then for
Wednesday and Thursday we should be on the western periphery of the
upper-level ridge with surface flow returning out of the south. Heat
and and least a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
then return areawide, with afternoon sea breeze becoming a feature
those days. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

High moisture in the boundary layer, combined with residual sfc
boundary around, may lead to development of MVFR to IFR ceilings
&/or vsby overnight from low stratus & patchy fog. Expect any
restrictions to improve by daybreak, with some scattered SHRA &
iso VCTS in east-southeast TAF sites, but especially near MEI, HBG
& PIB. This will persist through early evening, ending around
29/00Z. Light southerly winds, at times variable & generally under
10mph, are expected through the TAF period. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  75  92  76 /  30  10  30  10
Meridian      92  74  94  74 /  60  20  50  20
Vicksburg     94  77  94  76 /  10   0  20  10
Hattiesburg   94  76  95  76 /  70  20  60  20
Natchez       93  75  93  75 /  20  10  30  10
Greenville    94  78  97  78 /   0   0  10  10
Greenwood     92  76  94  77 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-047.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

EC/NF/DC