Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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781 FXUS64 KJAN 300000 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Tonight and tomorrow: Dangerous heat continues to be the main concern in the near term as dewpoints have held in the upper 70s and even some spots with 80. Such dewpoints should only allow temperatures to drop to the upper 70s to 80 overnight, furthering heat stress. Hot and muggy conditions persist Sunday, so will continue to carry heat headlines and messaging. Moisture pooling ahead of frontal boundary could potentially push dewpoints even higher tomorrow, with more widespread near 80/80 dewpoints. The resulting heat indices will be in the 105-115 range. Sunday could potentially be hotter than today given the CAMs tendency to hold off convection until afternoon. Relief is in sight, albeit temporary, as drier air ushers in in the wake of the cold front early next week./SAS/ Sunday night through Friday night: Come Sunday evening wl still be on the eastern periphery of a large 597dam ridge while a weak cold front drops into the northern portions of our CWA. There will still be the chance for rain along and ahead of the cold front during the evening but model consensus is that it will be dry after midnight. Come Monday morning the cold front is expected to be stalled across the central portions of the CWA with drier air across our northern zones. A surface high to the northeast will help maintain drier air across our northern zones but the area south of Interstate 20 will likely need a Heat Advisory as peak heat index values between 105F and 110F are expected again. There will also be the chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon south of Interstate 20. This activity should end by early evening and Monday night is expected to be dry. Tuesday the mid level ridge is expected to become centered over north Mississippi and surface ridging is expected to be nosing back across our CWA from the northeast. This will lead to another day of hat and humidity, especially across the southern half of the CWA where another Heat Advisory will likely be needed. There will also be the diurnal chance for convection across the southern half of the CWA. Wednesday through Friday the mid level ridge will weaken and flatten over our region. Afternoon highs will continue to be above normal and combine with high humidity for heat index values above 105F each day. As the mid level ridge breaks down there will be a greater coverage of diurnally driven convection each day as well. /22/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were still lingering around the area. Much of the thunderstorm activity has dissipated with the remaining showers expected to be done shortly after sunset. Expecting clouds to thin out this evening with mid to high clouds expected. There was some suggestion of fog overnight in a few places, but left it out. Patchy fog will be possible at the usual sites(KHBG,KPIB,KMEI)overnight. Sunday, looking for convection to develop across area by afternoon. The seabreeze may bring showers and a few storms into the highway 84 corridor late morning/early afternoon and slowly drift north. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible ahead of the next boundary, mainly across the north by afternoon and will slowly drift south through the day. Added VCTS to most zones tomorrow with a short period of MVFR for KPIB, KHBG, KHKS and KJAN from mid to late afternoon. Models suggest activity will continue central and south into the evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 77 93 76 94 / 10 60 20 30 Meridian 77 95 74 94 / 20 60 20 20 Vicksburg 78 95 76 94 / 10 40 20 20 Hattiesburg 76 95 77 97 / 20 60 30 50 Natchez 77 93 76 94 / 20 40 20 40 Greenville 79 96 75 91 / 0 60 10 10 Greenwood 77 95 73 93 / 10 60 10 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ018-019- 025>027-034>036-040>042-047-053-059-060. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ028>033-037>039- 043>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-072>074. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ074-075. && $$ /07