Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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546 FXUS64 KJAN 010152 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 852 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 851 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Late afternoon storm activity held on with this hot/humid airmass in place and we`ve seen decent coverage into the initial part of this evening. PoPs were adjusted earlier to account for more activity and then show a downward trend from 02-04z with no mention of precip after that. This looks to fit that trend well and the only other adjustment for PoPs/weather will be needed once activity is gone. Other changes were to temps as this was an effort to chase the rain cooled air and outflows which were lowering temps substantially. Lastly, the excessive heat warning and heat advisory from today has expired. There`s an additional one for Monday, but the area/orientation is quite different and this is focused across the SW/S part of the forecast area. /CME/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Tonight and tomorrow: A few showers and storms could linger past sunset tonight, as a surface cold front pushes south across the area. In the wake, dry air will bring some much needed relief from the heat, albeit temporary. It`s not all good news for everybody though, as areas south of I-20 hold onto mid to upper 70s dewpoints. As such, a heat advisory has been continued in this area for heat indices 105+. Showers and storms continue to be possible tomorrow afternoon in far southern areas where moisture remains abundant, but should be more isolated than this afternoon. Heat makes a return mid week with upper ridging continuing to build eastward./SAS/ Monday night through Saturday night: Come Monday evening a large 595dam ridge will be centered just west of our CWA while a >1020mb centered over the Ohio valley ridges southwest across our CWA to a stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf coast. A much drier airmass with PWATs less than an inch and a half and surface dew points in the 60s will be over the northeast third of our CWA. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the forecast period as the large mid level high becomes centered over our CWA. Most sites will top out in the upper 90s. These temperatures combined with high humidity across our southern zones will result in heat index values between 105F and 110F again so a continuation of a Heat Advisory is likely for our southern zones Tuesday. Any daytime convection across our southern zones is expected to have dissipated by evening so Tuesday night dry weather is expected. Wednesday through Friday the mid level ridge will weaken and flatten over our region. The surface ridge will shift south and nose across the Gulf coast from the east. This will help return low level moisture and result in high humidity back across our whole CWA. Afternoon highs will continue to be above normal and combine with high humidity for heat index values above 105F each day. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for most of our CWA each day. As the mid level ridge breaks down there will be a greater coverage of diurnally driven convection each day as well. Saturday upper level troughing from the west and perhaps a weak cold front will move over our area. This will result in our next best chance for widespread rain. The increased cloud cover and lower heights will also serve to hold temperatures down a few degrees. /22/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Generally quiet TAF period but over the next 1-2 hrs a couple sites will be close to or get a brief SHRA/TSRA and I have a brief mention of this. Beyond that, most of the night will be VFR. There looks to be a small period between 12-16z where a corridor of MVFR ceilings will exist early Monday ahead of a frontal boundary. I have covered this with the latest TAF issuance. VFR will prevail beyond 16z. /CME/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 77 94 70 97 / 20 10 0 20 Meridian 75 95 69 97 / 40 0 0 30 Vicksburg 77 94 70 97 / 30 10 0 10 Hattiesburg 77 97 74 97 / 20 20 0 40 Natchez 76 94 73 98 / 40 30 10 20 Greenville 77 92 69 97 / 20 0 0 0 Greenwood 75 93 68 97 / 20 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ047-048- 053>055-059-061>065-072>074. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ060. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ015-016-023- 025. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ024- 026. AR...None. && $$ CME/SAS20/22