637
FXUS63 KIWX 020446
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1246 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures and dry conditions persist through Tuesday.

- Heat and humidity substantially increase Wednesday with
  dewpoints in the low 70s, highs in the upper 80s to low 90s,
  and (along the US 24 corridor) heat indices in the mid to
  upper 90s.

- A more active pattern mid to late week, with rain chances each
  day Wednesday to Friday. Isolated severe storms possible
  during the afternoon/evening on Wednesday.

- Fourth of July forecast: Humid and warm with highs in the mid
  80s. 40-60% chances for rain throughout the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Comfortable humidity, cooler than normal temperatures, and dry
conditions will continue! Surface high pressure will build in over
the Great Lakes, with a dry and cool Canadian airmass over the
region. Low temperatures tomorrow morning will be in the low to mid
50s, which means it will be another great night to turn off the AC
and open your windows! As upper level ridging begins to break down
and the surface high pressure moves east, temperatures will start to
warm up again. Highs Tuesday will be in the low to mid 80s.

Heat and humidity substantially increase Wednesday with
dewpoints in the low 70s, highs in the upper 80s to near 90, and
heat indices in the 90s. A Heat Advisory may be needed along
the US 24 corridor where heat indices will be in the upper 90s.
The next chance for showers/storms arrives Wednesday
afternoon/evening ahead of a cold front. All of the heat and
humidity will yield increasing instability (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE
per the NAM and RAP) during the day Wednesday. SPC introduced a
Marginal Risk for the southeast part of our area in Day 3 Severe
Weather Outlook this morning. Models have not come to agreement
if ingredients and timing will line up, but severe weather
could be possible. There is also some uncertainty if early
morning cloud cover with inhibit destabilization. Stay tuned
for updates!

Thursday and Friday continue to look active with sporadic chances
for showers and storms. In the wake of Wednesday`s cold front, the
temperature forecast on Fourth of July looks to be near normal with
highs in the low 80s. However, there will be 40-60% chances for
scattered showers and storms throughout the day. Should a frontal
boundary become stationary over our forecast area Thursday and
Friday, heavy rainfall in any showers/storms is possible. Don`t
postpone any plans for fireworks or outdoor activities on Thursday
just yet but keep an eye on the forecast.

The weekend features high temperatures in the low to mid 80s with
drier conditions returning to the Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Elevated warm/moist air advection will bring increasing
mid/upper clouds but low levels remain very dry and VFR
conditions will persist. Weak cold front washes into the area
Wednesday morning but any impacts are beyond this forecast
period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...AGD/Steinwedel