Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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635 FXUS63 KIWX 270515 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 115 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Patchy fog early this morning, primarily along and south of US 24. - Mild and dry conditions expected on Thursday. - Additional round of showers and thunderstorms expected Friday night and Saturday. Cool and dry conditions return for the second half of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this afternoon as a stalled frontal boundary becomes activated as a cold front thanks to a midlevel shortwave pivoting through the Great Lakes. Hi resolution guidance has this clearing our CWA from NW to SE by 6pm EDT this evening. Lightning, heavy downpours leading to localized flooding, gusty winds to 40mph, and small hail will be possible with the heavier cores. A very pleasant day looks to be on tap tomorrow as we`ll be dry with afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s and dewpoints in the 50s. Enough said! Next chance for precipitation arrives Friday night into Saturday. The ingredients (SBCAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 30- 40kts) look to be there for the possibility of severe weather during the afternoon on Saturday; however, some timing differences of these ingredients and the possible impacts from earlier convection precluded confidence for probabilities to be included on the Day 4 lookout. Keep an eye out for future updates over the next couple of days to see if these align. Regardless of severity, showers and thunderstorms are more than likely Friday night through Saturday. If you need to pick a day with better weather for outdoor activities, Sunday will be the choice with cool temperatures (highs in the low/mid 70s) and no precipitation. The caveat is if you are swimming in Lake Michigan, take the advise of local lifeguards as post- frontal northerly winds may lead to hazardous surf-zone conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 109 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Some BR/FG has developed on the interface of an east-west oriented cold front south of KSBN, but in the vicinity of KFWA. Therefore, no risk of fog at KSBN with their lower dew points post- frontal. However, 2SM BR perhaps lingers at KFWA for most of this morning. Dew points have been slowly falling there since sunset but saturation likely prevails until sunrise. Medium confidence on the duration and magnitude of visibility restriction this morning. Otherwise, high pressure in place today followed by high clouds late. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Norman AVIATION...Brown