750
FXUS63 KILX 301729
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures cool into the 70s for highs through Monday. Highs
warm back into the upper 80s starting Tuesday ahead of another cold
front passage, which will drop temperatures slightly into the low
80s for the remainder of the week.

- The next significant chance for showers and thunderstorms comes
late Tuesday night (40-60% chance) and again Thursday (60-80%
chance).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The forecast remains largely on track this morning, although
temperatures were overachieving a bit from the forecast, despite
some cu near and east of I-57. Thinking is this is due to the dry
airmass which is more subject to rapid radiational warming than
normal for this time of year. A blend of the 12z HRRR and NBM
seemed to handle this as well as anything, so temps/dewpoints
were adjusted through tonight that way.

Bumgardner

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A high pressure system has built over the Dakotas and will travel
eastward to over the Great Lakes by late Monday. This will keep us
dry and below normal for temperatures today and tomorrow. Late
Tuesday another frontal system will make its way through the
Midwest, bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to
the CWA (40-60% chance). Timing of this system has been slowing in
recent trends. Multiple waves look to follow for the remainder of
the week, keeping POPs in the area through Friday or Saturday.

Today, highs will be below normal for this time of year, with
temperatures ranging in the 70s. Weather will be dry, sunny, with
low humidity. Lows overnight will drop down into the low 50s.
Overall, quite pleasant for the last day in June.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be the hottest days of the week as the
initial cold front propagates through the CWA. Temperatures will
get up into the upper 80s to low 90s, with dewpoints getting into
the 70s. Storms are possible along and ahead of the front where
the strong moisture and instability exist. QPF amounts with this
system are anywhere from a trace to 0.5 inches.

The 4th of July (Thursday) has a 60-80% chance of scattered showers
and thunderstorms pretty much CWA wide. QPF is showing near an inch
for many locations from the rain on Thursday. More exact details of
timing and areas of interest will clear up as we move closer to the
holiday this week. It looks like there are decent chances at this
time through the entire holiday into the nighttime hours. This is
Day 5 in the forecast, so there is wiggle room for some adjustments
to the forecast between now and then.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The morning cumulus generally along and east of I-57 has gradually
lifted into the VFR category while simultaneously thinning. This
trend should continue into the afternoon as mixing deepens with
surface heating, with VFR conditions slated to continue throughout
the remainder of the forecast period. Northeast winds will
simultaneously ease and veer to easterly overnight, picking back
up to around 10 kt just after sunrise Monday.

Bumgardner

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$