218
FXUS61 KILN 020538
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
138 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift off to the east tonight through
Tuesday. This will lead to a return to summer-like conditions
along with chances for thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Large area of surface high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes to build east as mid level ridging begins to build in from
the west. High level clouds will thin as they spill into the
area overnight. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool with
overnight lows in the lower and middle 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The surface high pressure will continue to push east through
the day on Tuesday as mid level ridging shifts slowly east
across the southeast US. Some high level clouds will again be
possible at times on Tuesday. In developing return flow across
the area through the day on Tuesday, afternoon highs will push
into the mid to upper 80s. We will also see surface dewpoints
begin to increase from the south through the day. Some mid level
energy moving into the ridge will lead to an increase in mid
and high level clouds later Tuesday night. Lows Tuesday night
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A hot, humid, and generally unsettled synoptic setup will be in
place over the Ohio Valley from Wednesday through at least
Friday. For Wednesday, moderately strong southerly flow should
allow temperatures to reach into the 90s thanks to a low passing
well to the north. The first half of the day should be dry, but
a chance for showers and thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon. If storms do develop, some could be strong since
dynamics will be enhanced by the low up in Canada. Thursday and
Friday may feature slightly moderated temperatures and weaker
southerly flow with the low moving further away from the Ohio
Valley. Afternoon showers and storms will be possible each
afternoon with diurnal instability in place.

On Friday night, a weak cold front is forecast to move in from
the west. High pressure builds in behind the front for the
weekend helping to cool temperatures slightly and lower
afternoon rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

For today, a mid level ridge axis will build northeast from the
lower Mississippi River Valley into the middle Ohio Valley and
eastern Great Lakes. A weak mid level disturbance rippling
through this ridge will bring a FEW-SCT mid/high clouds. In
addition, some FEW-SCT diurnal cumulus clouds will develop over
the southern CWFA after 18Z. Winds will veer from the east to
the south and increase to around 10 knots between 15Z and 18Z.

For tonight, the mid level ridge axis will shift a little east.
Some mid and high level clouds will encroach the region from
the west, mostly likely convective debris blow off clouds
originating from upstream thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Hickman