757
FXUS61 KILN 051750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
150 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms can be expected ahead of cold front
that passes through the area late in the day into early evening.
The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure
builds across the Ohio Valley. The next threat for showers and
thunderstorms will occur Tuesday as moisture increases on the
backside of retreating high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning update...
A weakening line of showers and thunderstorms continues to
approach southwest portions of the area. In general,
thunderstorm intensity trends have been decreasing with cloud
top temperatures warming over the last one to two hours.
Lingering cloud cover along a stalled boundary continues to
break apart across the Ohio River ahead of the thunderstorm line,
however, efficient heating has been delayed. The best chance to
see thunderstorm updrafts reinvigorated would be across the far
southeast (southern Ohio, northeast Kentucky) portions of the
area after several more hours of heating can take place. Bumped
up PoPs in the far south to account for the line and potential
for new development. Given the 35 to 40 knots effective bulk
shear, can`t rule out a few damaging wind gusts.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with minor adjustments
made to the afternoon/evening thunderstorm coverage.

Previous discussion...
A moist southwest flow aloft continues today ahead of a low
that tracks from the Upper MS Valley onto the Great Lakes.
Patchy fog and stratus will continue to develop in the very
moist post rain environment this morning. The clouds and fog
will improve after sunrise - similar to yesterday.

Moderate instability to develop today ahead of a surface cold
front that sweeps east thru the area late in the day into early
this evening. A degree of instability will be dependent on how
quickly the cloud cover improves.

Moderate deep shear will result in a marginal severe weather
threat with the best threat across the south where the best
instability is expected. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be
the primary threat. High temperatures will range from the mid to
the upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Ongoing convection in the early evening in the far east will end
as the surface cold front shifts east of the region. Dry air
quickly moves in behind the front heading into the overnight
period. Lows tonight to range from the lower to the middle 60s.

Cyclonic flow continues across the Great Lakes supporting more
cu development across the north Saturday. Clouds to decrease
heading into Saturday evening as surface high pressure builds
into the area. Highs to range from 80 to 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure moves overhead Saturday night through Sunday
night. This will allow for fairly favorable conditions for
radiational cooling Saturday night leading to lows in the lower 60s.
Fair weather conditions continue on Sunday and Sunday night with
temperatures near or slightly below early July averages.

Surface high pressure weakens and moves east of the Ohio Valley on
Monday. Southwesterly flow redevelops on the western side of the
high which will allow warm, humid conditions to return. Shower and
storm chances will also redevelop Monday night through Tuesday night
when an upper level shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley.
Instability is forecast to be rather low so severe chances remain
minimal. PWATs will likely reach above average so locally heavy rain
could be possible.

Near average temperatures and moisture return behind the shortwave
for the end of the week. Afternoon rain chances remain low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms is moving
out of the area, providing some light rain to the Columbus area
TAF sites. Otherwise, the rest of the scattered activity is
isolated to the front which is still west of the sites, toward
Indianapolis. This front will generate additional showers and a
perhaps a few thunderstorms from 21-02Z as it moves through from
west to east. Based on the current environment over the area,
removed lightning mention because coverage is expected to be
more limited. As needed, TS mention will be added as confidence
improves.

Winds around 5-10 knots will shift to more westerly throughout
the remainder of the TAF behind the cold front. VFR
stratocumulus will then expand across the sites for much of
Saturday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...McGinnis/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...McGinnis