Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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870 FXUS61 KILN 262346 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 746 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Shower and thunderstorm activity will come to an end tonight with the passage of a cold front. Surface high pressure will build in and provide drier weather through Friday. Another system builds back in for the start of the weekend, leading to additional rounds of showers and storms Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Coverage in showers will increase from the NW ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary. Most of the convection has remained north of our CWA thus far. Given the lack of pre- frontal showers, hydro concerns remain fairly meager across our counties, even with the efficient rainfall that is expected. Additionally, the line of showers moving in have had little instability to work with and thus have not produced much thunder. For locations along/NW of I-71, this remains much of the same, leading to only pockets of embedded thunderstorms in these showers. While locations SE of I-71 have had some better insolation this afternoon, SBCAPE values are unlikely to rebound enough to warrant a larger severe concern. Still monitoring potential for an isolated strong to severe storm developing, mainly for our southeastern counties in the Scioto Valley and north-central KY. This threat will likely end after sunset. Given how progressive the front will be, rainfall will also be ending early tonight for our counties, with precip fully out of our CWA by midnight or shortly thereafter. Skies will quickly clear out behind the frontal boundary tonight. This may lead to some patchy fog development, mainly for our southeastern counties. Will have to monitor trends on this potential. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Thursday will offer more seasonable temperatures as surface high pressure builds in from the NW. The northerly flow will help usher in relatively drier air as well, with dewpoints ranging in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Given the weak CAA present, cu development seems probable during the late morning and afternoon hours. Still, expecting a fair amount of sunshine throughout the day, with temperatures ranging in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Skies clear out once again Thursday night, with favorable radiative cooling leading to temperatures dropping into the middle 50s to near 60 across the CWA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure will be shifting off to the east through the day on Friday. Developing return flow on the back side of this will allow for temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s through the afternoon. Mid level short wave energy will spread east across the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Friday night and then through the day on Saturday with an associated cold front dropping southeast across our region Saturday night. Increasing southwest flow and moisture advection ahead of this will lead to a developing chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Temperatures on Saturday will be somewhat dependent on the timing of this but will generally range highs from the upper 80s in the northwest to the lower 90s in the southeast. Surface dewpoints will also be creeping up into the lower to possibly mid 70s through the day so some heat indices of around 100 degrees or so may be possible, especially across southeast portions of our area. This will also lead to the potential for some decent destabilization through the day so a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Pcpn chances will taper off from the northwest later Saturday night as the cold front moves through. A cooler air mass will begin to filter into the region behind the front on Sunday with highs ranging from the upper 70s northwest to the mid 80s in the southeast. Temperatures on Monday will be several degrees below normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Upper level ridging will build in from the southwest through mid week, leading to a return to warmer temperatures with highs Tuesday and Wednesday back into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Some mid level energy moving over the ridge will lead to some lower end chances for thunderstorms toward the end of the long term period. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Shower activity will quickly move out of the TAF sites this evening and cloud cover will move out as well. There will then be the potential for fog development overnight. It might be a case where the visibility drops and then improves slightly before sunrise as winds start up just a bit, however in general just start the fog a little earlier than typical and have it lasting through the overnight. CAA cu will be in place for the day on Thursday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Clark LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...