Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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498 FXUS61 KILN 280602 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 202 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains intact through Friday, keeping the forecast dry. Warmer temperatures arrive on Friday and into Saturday, with additional rounds of showers and storms on Saturday with an approaching system. Drier weather returns for the end of the weekend and start of the next work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure and dry conditions will be present overnight. Went close to guidance for low temperatures overnight with lows in the 50s to low 60s. A little drier overnight tonight and there will be an increase in high clouds, therefore only have river valley fog mention in the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... High pressure continues to push eastward. By the morning of Friday flow will be more southeasterly, becoming southerly by the afternoon. This will subsequently push more warm and moist air into the area, with dewpoints in the upper 50s being advected alongside air temperatures in the upper 80s. South of the Ohio River, these values may be slightly higher. More partly cloudy conditions may be observed throughout the day as a result. Overnight Friday, an upper-to-mid-level disturbance will push further into the upper Midwest, increasing cloud cover as the night continues. This system will likely spur the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning hours of Saturday. Severe impacts from this broken line of convection are minimal, though marginal amounts of instability and shear could develop an isolated strong storm. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mid level short wave energy will shift east across the region Saturday into Saturday with an associated cold front dropping southeast across the mid and upper Ohio Valley later Saturday night into Sunday morning. In developing southwest flow ahead of this, temperatures on Sunday will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s with surface dewpoints nudging up into the low to mid 70s. This should allow for decent destabilization through the day on Saturday, although there is a little bit of uncertainty as to how some potential lingering morning convection may affect this. As the better forcing moves in through the afternoon, expect showers and thunderstorms to become more widespread from northwest to southeast across our area through the day. Assuming we are able to destabilize enough, deep layer shear profiles would be supportive of some severe storms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Damaging wind would be the main threat, although it would be tough to rule out an isolated tornado as low level shear will also be increasing through the afternoon/evening. The combination of temps and dewpoints will also lead to some heat indices up to around 100 degrees or so Saturday afternoon, especially across our southern areas. Pcpn will taper off from the northwest through Saturday night with drier air moving in behind the front through early next week. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 70s northwest to the upper 80s in the southeast, while highs on Monday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the entire area. More summer-like temperatures will return through mid week as upper level ridging builds across the southeast US. Some mid level energy moving over the ridge will lead to thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The center of surface high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes this morning will move off the New England coast by this evening. Through sunrise, some mid and high level clouds will spill east/southeast across the region. Winds will be from the east between 5 and 10 knots. For today, low level flow will veer to a southerly direction. Some late day cumulus clouds may form near the Ohio River, otherwise, SCT to LCL BKN mid and high level clouds can be expected. Winds will be from the south around 10 knots. For tonight, embedded mid level disturbances in a west/southwest flow aloft will interact with increasing deep moisture and a low level jet. This will first bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening. Then, by late tonight, showers and embedded thunderstorms will become more prevalent, mainly along and north of I-70 (KDAY to KCMH/KLCK) where the low level convergence will be more focused. MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities will be possible in thunderstorms. South winds near 10 knots will gust up to 20 knots at times overnight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday into Saturday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Hickman