Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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260 FXUS61 KILN 300238 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1038 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and a chance of thunderstorms will continue into tonight as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a cooler, drier airmass will build into the region behind the front for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Progressive mid level shortwave to track thru the northern Great Lakes overnight into Sunday. This will drive a surface cold front - currently over northern Indiana thru ILN/s area late tonight into early Sunday. Thunderstorms developed this afternoon n the moderately unstable airmass ahead of this approaching cold front. The strongest storms were observed in a bow echo segment that produced damaging winds across portions of southeast Indiana and southwest Ohio. These storms have cleared ILN/s area and therefore the severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled. The surface cold front drops southeast across the area later tonight. This could lead to a few lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms until the front moves through. A period of low clouds will likely accompany the front and linger for several hours in the low level CAA pattern. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph ahead of the front will become northwest later tonight with the frontal passage. Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s northwest to the low 70s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... A chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger into Sunday morning across our far southeast before the front clears the area. CAA behind the front will lead to cooler temperatures on Sunday with highs ranging from the mid 70s northwest to the lower 80s in the southeast. We should also see some cu develop in the CAA for partly cloudy skies on Sunday. These cu should dissipate heading into Sunday evening with mostly clear skies expected Sunday night. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure passes overhead on Monday and Monday night. Fair weather skies and below average temperatures can be expected along with light northeasterly winds. The surface high shifts east on Tuesday which will allow southerly flow to redevelop over the Ohio Valley. Warm, moist air returns along with height rises on the southwesterly winds. By Wednesday, increasing afternoon rain chances accompany the hot, humid air over the region. Diurnal shower/storm chances persist through most of the week since the synoptic pattern appears slow to modify. Toward the Friday timeframe, a weak cold front may move through the Ohio Valley which may initially increase shower/storm chances before leading to slight moderation in temperatures by the weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Thunderstorms developed in the moderately unstable airmass ahead of an approaching cold front. The strongest storms were observed in a bow echo segment that produced damaging winds across portions of southeast Indiana and southwest Ohio. These storms are showing a general weakening trend as they move into a less favorable environment and move southeast of the TAF sites. Thunderstorm chances decrease with VFR conditions as we head into late evening. The surface cold front drops southeast across the area later tonight. This could lead to a few lingering showers and perhaps an isold thunderstorms until the front moves through. Chances and coverage are low - so have omitted any mention in the TAF forecast at this time. Some MVFR cigs are possible with the front later tonight and continue into Sunday morning before improving back to VFR later Sunday morning. Southwest winds ahead of the front will become northwest later tonight with the frontal passage. These northwest winds will gust up to 20 to 25 kts on Sunday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...AR