109
FXUS62 KILM 050536
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
136 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore will continue to bring warmer and more
humid air into the Carolinas. Daytime heat indices could exceed
105 degrees beginning Friday. Thunderstorm chances will
increase this weekend into early next week as a cold front
stalls inland.

&&

.UPDATE...
The Coastal Flood Advisory from earlier tonight was allowed to
expire at 11 PM EDT. Otherwise, no major changes coming down the
track at just after 1:30 AM EDT. New forecast package should be
ready within the next two hours or so.

Elsewhere, updated 06Z TAF discussion found below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A quiet but hot near term forecast as a north-south elongated
high offshore acts as a heat and moisture pump into the
Southeastern U.S. Light S winds tonight should preclude any fog
development while also leading to just enough mixing to keep
highs in the mid 70s. It`s worth noting that the WRF is alone in
depicting a shortwave-induced line of showers into the Cape
Fear region between 09 and 12Z but the moistening it shows in
its forecast soundings looked unrealistically aggressive. As
tomorrow`s southerly winds get bolstered slightly by a Piedmont
trough temperatures and dewpoints will rise such that advisory-
worthy heat index values (105-109) will be realized away from
the immediate beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Hotter and more humid weather will continue on Saturday with
temps into the mid 90s and heat index values reaching Heat
Advisory thresholds inland of the beaches. The day will start
out so warm, near 80 in spots, that we may even see Heat
Warning criteria reached for an hour or so before clouds and
convection increases.

The upper level ridge will get nudged eastward as broad mid to
upper level trough over northern CONUS pushes a cold front
eastward. At the sfc, high pressure will continue to feed warm
and increasingly moist air into the Carolinas. Overall, Moisture
will pool ahead of this front in deep S-SW flow with pcp water
values upwards of 2 inches with dewpoint temps in the mid 70s
over the area. This will increase chances of convection into Sat
aftn and early evening mainly focused inland with the main
threat of heavy rainfall in weak steering flow, producing
localized flooding in places.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper ridge across the Southeast gets squeezed out a bit
between upper trough to the west and upper low spinning to the
east early next week. The greatest moisture axis will push
eastward ahead of the stalling front to the west and align
itself over the eastern Carolinas with pcp water values upwards
of 2 inches focused across the eastern Carolinas. May end up
being more in the way of clouds along the coast on Sunday with
storms focused along stalled front inland, but in general,
should see diurnal localized convection each day with main
threat of localized flooding. May see some subsidence on back
end of the upper low help to limit convection over the area Mon
or Tues before next trough and front reaches the Carolinas Wed
into Thurs. Overall, a very warm and moist summertime air mass
will remain in place with better chc of convection on Sun for
the coast and slightly less hot temps due to clouds and
convection on Sun. May flirt with Heat Advisory conditions
through the week, but should be affected by clouds and
convection through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure off the coast will maintain generally
light southerly flow through the 06Z TAF period. Mid/upper
ridging overhead should keep showers and thunderstorms at bay.
Some broken cumulus at 5000-6000ft is possible over the next few
hours.

Extended Outlook...VFR through the end of the week outside of
the potential for morning fog and stratus. Slight chance of
flight restrictions this weekend and into early next week as
chances for convection return.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Tonights S to SW flow will remain quite light and
Beryl swells will be the dominant wave. Heading into tomorrow the
swell energy will be abating while a developing Piedmont trough
raises wind speed by about a category.

Friday night through Tuesday...Atlantic high pressure will
prevail with a cold front likely stalling out inland early next
week. Although winds will be elevated at times, mainly each
afternoon due to the sea breeze, they should mostly stay 20 kt
or less. Seas will stay 4 ft or less with wave periods
diminishing through the period as the SE swells subside. Thus,
not expecting any Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High Risk of rip currents continues through Friday for Cape Fear
northward, and with Beryl swell continuing into Saturday expect
at least a moderate risk then.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MBB/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM