847
FXUS62 KILM 011955
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
355 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms may accompany a cold front moving
south across the Carolinas today. Cooler weather is expected
to persist through Wednesday. Heat and humidity will return
late in the week with good potential for heat indices to exceed
105 degrees beginning Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will push off the coast over the next couple of hours
and end the lingering heavy rain threat. Post frontal dew points in
the mid 60s has been a welcomed air mass change and this will remain
over the area for the next couple of days. Mid level cloud cover
near the coast could interfere with overnight lows, but dry air
aloft will attempt to scour this cloud deck. Light northeast winds
overnight will keep the shallow boundary layer mixed. As a result,
have gone with low 60s inland and upper 60s to near 70s along the
coast in onshore flow.

Exceptionally dry air aloft and diurnal mixing on Tuesday could
bring surface dew points into the lower 50s. Some dew point recovery
is expected during the afternoon with onshore winds. A much cooler
air mass will keep afternoon highs in the mid and upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Cooler than normal temperatures with mainly dry conditions

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: An unseasonably cooler and drier air mass is expected to
prevail with surface high pressure to the north shifting off to the
northeast by the end of the period. Models differ in how low
dewpoints will get but we leaned toward the drier scenario given the
deep subsidence and models typical poor handling of dewpoints.
Limited moisture/forcing will keep rain unlikely for most, although
could see some coastal showers at times, especially in SC where
moisture convergence will be greatest.

Temps should stay below normal through the period with highs mostly
in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and lows mainly in the mid to
upper 60s away from the warmer coastal locales.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:
*Excessive heat/humidity returns starting Friday

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: Deep high pressure should prevail which will keep temps
above normal for the most part except for near the coast Thursday.
The main concern will be the high heat indices of 105+ degrees which
means there is a good chance for Heat Advisories and even Excessive
Heat Warnings. Unfortunately, rain chances should stay pretty
low, especially through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Breezy behind a cold front this afternoon with gusts up to 25
knots through mid afternoon, decreasing through the afternoon to
sustained winds of around 15 knots. Thunder at the Grand Strand
will gradually shift offshore over the next couple of hours as
the front pushes with it. MVFR cloud cover likely for a few
hours, but strong mixing will bring all areas to VFR late this
afternoon and especially by this evening. VFR on Tuesday.

Extended Outlook... VFR should dominate through the end of the
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday... High pressure building over the northeastern
US will keep breezy winds behind an exiting cold front. Near
SCA gusts tonight due to a NE surge behind the cold front. Wind
wave will build to 4-5 feet overnight. Winds will gradually
shift this evening and into Tuesday as the high weakens and
pushes offshore of Long Island. Onshore flow will keep seas
choppy at around 3-4 feet as the remaining southerly swell
diminishes.

Tuesday night through Saturday...High pressure building from the
north will shift offshore Wednesday allowing for the return of a
more typical summertime pattern. Slightly elevated onshore winds
Tuesday night will diminish Wednesday with seas likely peaking
Tuesday night before becoming more swell-dominated. Overall,
Small Craft Advisory conditions are not anticipated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Although there has been isolated heavy rainfall in spots over the
past few days, the current U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate
drought (D1) across portions of eastern North and South Carolina.
This drought has developed due to 60 day rainfall totals running
well below normal plus recent hot, dry weather. Some areas closer to
the coast (particularly the Cape Fear region) are picking up
some beneficial rainfall today. After a few cooler and drier
days the hot and mostly dry weather will re-develop late in the
week. Heat indices may push above 105 degrees starting Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RJB/21
FIRE WEATHER...