113
FXUS62 KILM 021048
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
648 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild temperatures for July are expected today and Wednesday as
high pressure builds in from the north. As the high moves offshore
later this week, increasing heat and humidity could lead to
dangerous heat indices developing by the weekend. Coverage of
showers and thunderstorms may begin to increase early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes coming down the track as we near the 7 AM EDT
forecast update. Updated 12Z TAF discussion found below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis shows the old frontal boundary well to the
south and offshore of the area, extending back to near Sapelo
Island, GA. Weak low pressure has formed along this frontal
boundary, allowing for some isolated light showers to fall over the
adjacent coastal waters. Some of that activity will try to sneak
onshore into Georgetown County between today and tonight, but other
than that, the mainland stays dry. This moisture presence at the
coast will mostly manifest itself in elevated cloud cover through
this period, while skies remain mostly clear along and west of I-95.
NE to ENE winds persist today and tonight, allowing for the cooler
air to stick around. Highs today only reach the mid-to-upper 80s.
Lows tonight in the low-to-mid 60s inland, lower 70s at the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The subtropical ridge at 500 mb should remain centered across
Alabama and Georgia, close enough for a warm convective cap to
remain over the eastern Carolinas between 600-700 mb. While
we`ll likely have daytime cumulus pop up both Wednesday and
Thursday, warm and very dry air aloft will make it hard for
convective showers to form. In the low levels, light onshore
flow around high pressure departing the Mid Atlantic coast
should lead to slowly rising dewpoints as the airmass moderates
back toward what is considered normal for July. Inland highs
reaching 90-95 on Thursday combined with dewpoints in the lower
70s should produce heat indices at or just above 100 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The center of the subtropical ridge should crest over the
eastern Carolinas during the day Friday. Model trends over the
past 24 hours have dropped 500 mb heights by 10-20 meters across
the Carolinas beginning late Saturday and show more influence
from a slightly stronger pair of shortwaves that move across the
Great Lakes. A weaker ridge aloft implies less capping and a
better chance for deep convection so forecast PoPs have been
adjusted accordingly: 20 percent Friday, 20-40 percent Saturday,
and 40-50 percent on both Sunday and Monday.

The bigger story may turn out to be a return of stifling heat
and humidity. Strong July sun should lead to inland high
temperatures soaring into the 90s each day, but especially
Friday and Saturday when upper 90s are expected across the Pee
Dee/I-95 region in the capped airmass before the ridge starts to
weaken. Dewpoints climbing into the mid 70s should push
afternoon heat indices above 105 degrees each day beginning
Friday. It`s even possible we will reach Excessive Heat Warning
criteria of 110+ heat indices Saturday.

One last note: while some parts of the eastern Carolinas did
pick up substantial rain over the past several days, many did
not. This was most apparent across portions of South Carolina`s
Pee Dee region where 30-day rainfall totals are running less
than 20 percent of normal. Data collected by authors of the U.S.
Drought Monitor show that agricultural impacts from the drought
are worsening quickly in this area. Since no substantial
rainfall is expected until at least the weekend, these drought
conditions will only continue to worsen.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR throughout the 12Z TAF period. MVFR ceilings have finally
eroded away at KCRE and KMYR within the last hour or so. Northeasterly
winds become more ENE by tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR should dominate through the end of the
work week. Slight chance of flight restrictions on Saturday as
chances for convection return.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Northeasterly winds loosen up throughout the
day, though still breezy, with sustained speeds at 15kts and
gusts up to 20kts. Winds become more ENE tonight at 10-15kts.
Seas at 3-5ft early this morning gradually decrease to 2-4ft
throughout the day and tonight.

Wednesday through Saturday night...High pressure centered just
off the Mid Atlantic coastline Wednesday should slowly move
eastward to just north of Bermuda by Friday. For here across the
Carolinas this should lead to easterly winds veering southerly
by late in the week, with afternoon and evening increases in
wind speed driven by local seabreezes. Generally dry conditions
are expected Wednesday through Friday, but showers and
thunderstorms could begin to develop across the coastal waters
Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...TRA/IGB