360
FXUS62 KILM 031940
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
340 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the East Coast, allowing warmer and
more humid air to return to the Carolinas later this week.
Daytime heat indices could exceed 105 degrees beginning Friday.
Thunderstorm chances will increase this weekend as a cold front
stalls inland from the coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure continues to provide seasonable temperatures and
drier weather. Light winds tonight, behind daytime dew point
recovery, could lead to patchy fog. This will mainly be a
concern for inland area and areas along the southern Grand
Strand where moisture advection has been best today.

High pressure will gradually shift southward tonight and into
the July 4th. Direct onshore flow should allow for warmer and
more humid conditions on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will soar
into the low and mid 90s across the area. Subsidence inversion
will still be present aloft and this should keep the area dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering mid-upper high pressure ridge from the southwest
through end of the work week, while southerly low level flow
strengthens around building Bermuda high. Highs Friday afternoon
in the mid to upper 90s (away from immediate coast) will
combine with increased humidity (dewpoints well into the 70s) to
bring elevated heat risk during the day and likely Heat
Advisory with heat indices forecasted at 105-110F. Subsidence
along the coast should keep most of the coastal counties dry
Friday, while widely scattered thunderstorms develop inland
(mainly along I-95) in the afternoon/evening hours. Low temps
Thursday and Friday night above normal in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The mid-upper ridge gets squeezed out over the weekend between
an upper low offshore and a longwave trough to the northwest. A
cold front moves into the western Carolinas Saturday before
slowing to a crawl, moving into the central Carolinas on Sunday
as high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. Scattered
thunderstorms forecasted both Saturday and Sunday, with
increased moisture due to proximity of front Sunday bringing
more cloud cover and potentially less instability. Heat advisory
again looks likely Saturday with similar conditions to Friday
(highs in mid-upper 90s and heat indices of 105- 110F), with
temps a few degrees cooler on Sunday. Low temps continue above
normal.

Bermuda high pressure is well established early next week,
maintaining elevated dewpoints through the long term. High temps
look to remain above normal (in the low to mid 90s), with
forecasted heat indices 100-105F each day. Upper trough lingers
to the north/northwest, with a few impulses rounding the base of
the trough next week. Combined with sea breeze and Piedmont
trough, expecting a typical summertime pattern of diurnal storm
potential.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Predominant VFR. Onshore flow could produce a few MVFR clouds
along the coast this evening. Any restrictions will be isolated
and brief; not including this in the TAFs at this time due to
low confidence. Calm winds overnight will bring a chance of fog
inland. Confidence is low regarding fog as dew point
depressions remain large today. Coastal areas will keep a light
onshore wind

Extended Outlook...VFR through the end of the week outside of
the potential for morning fog and stratus. Slight chance of
flight restrictions this weekend as chances for convection
return.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...High pressure to our north will gradually
shift southward tonight and Thursday. Onshore flow will weaken
overnight and turn southeasterly throughout the day on Thursday.
NE swell dissipates early Thursday, but long-period swells from
distant Hurricane Beryl will be increasing across the area.
Originally arriving tonight as 1 foot, 17 second swells, these
swells will become more frequent into Thursday. Swells around
1-2 feet peak late Thursday with a period of around 12-14
seconds. In addition to these long-period swells, SE swell from
the Bermuda high begin to increase Thursday evening, originating
at 2 feet. Boaters should take this unsettled and varied sea
state into account when planning for their July 4th activities.

Thursday Night through Sunday...Southerly winds persist around
Bermuda high pressure Thursday night, through the weekend, and
into next week. Seas around 3 feet through Saturday, lowering to
2-3 ft Sunday, primarily long period ESE swells from Beryl
through Saturday with wind chop. Sunday will primarily be an 8
second SE swell. Chance for overnight/early morning convection
over the coastal waters Saturday and Sunday nights.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...21
MARINE...VAO/21