Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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267 FXUS62 KILM 272000 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 400 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. Stalled front will return north late Friday. Another front late Sunday into Monday will potentially bring moderate rainfall to the area. Unseasonably hot temperatures will temporarily cool back to normal early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Storms were ongoing this afternoon focused inland near I-95 corridor, associated with front inland, and closer to the coast along sea breeze boundary. Models show outflows and eastward propagation of front through this evening maintaining potential for strong to severe storms with torrential rain, frequent lightning and possible severe wet downbursts with lower threat of hail. Area remains in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather. Front will become diffuse tonight as it lingers over the area with winds becoming very light and variable and then more easterly overnight. Storms will fade as rain cooled air becomes more widespread, loss of heating occurs and best shortwave energy moves offshore. Heat Advisory expires at 6p and although clouds and storms were becoming more widespread some areas will continue to experience heat index values above 105. Increased subsidence and plenty of shallow moisture from this today`s storms will increase possibility of fog overnight into the pre- dawn hours, but lingering debris clouds may help to limit it. Temps will drop into the low to mid 70s overnight for lows. The lingering frontal boundary will lift back inland and north on Friday with winds coming back around to the SE to southerly. Ridge builds overhead on Fri which should help to limit convection somewhat, but lingering moisture and onshore flow will maintain a moist air mass. With heating of the day as temps reach within a few degrees of 90s, expect localized convection Fri aftn. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Temps remain a bit above normal through the short term, with high dewpoints in the mid 70s maintaining humid conditions. Upper ridge temporarily builds over the area for Saturday, with subsidence inversion present aloft. Given moisture at the surface, and local boundaries (sea breeze and Piedmont trough), could still see a few afternoon storms Saturday with pops 30-45%, perhaps capped beneath the inversion. Highs in the low 90s, with another day of heat indices in the triple digits. Low temps in the mid 70s both nights won`t provide much relief. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging and associated subsidence will be weakening during the day Sunday. Another day of above normal temps (low to mid 90s) and increased humidity Sunday, though depending on timing of increasing clouds during the day this may change. A 500mb shortwave plus an approaching front Sunday night, combined with PWATs over 2", will provide decent rain chances beginning Sunday afternoon into overnight hours. If clouds clear out early Monday, forecast soundings and instability look good for scattered storms Monday afternoon. Rain chances continue ahead of a second, stronger front progged for Monday night. While QPF through Monday will most likely not be enough to alleviate drought conditions, some areas may see a much needed 1-2" over the next few days. Behind the second front, the dewpoints look to drop below 70F across the area for the first time in a while and temps lower to near or just below normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. Ridging returns aloft along with some dry air, though PWATs remain just above normal. Have maintained slight chance of sea breeze storms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR with main period of sub-VFR in stronger storms between 19z-01z. May also see some IFR fog or low stratus between 07-12z. Area remains in pre-frontal warm and unstable airmass with storms west of inland terminals forecast to move into vicinity of LBT and FLO by 19z and then move eastward toward the coast. Other less intense storms were developing along sea breeze boundary and should be in vicinity of coastal terminals after 20z as steering flow becomes more westerly. Overall, SW winds near 10 kt will become more variable and lighten this evening and overnight as boundary moves down over area. This should aid in fog development, especially inland terminals. Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty morning low clouds/fog. && .MARINE... Through Friday...SW flow ahead of front will lighten and become more variable tonight as front drops south and stalls near the coast. Light and variable winds will continue through Friday morning before onshore to SE flow develops later on Fri as front lifts back northward and dissipates. Seas will subside to 3 ft or less through Fri. A SE swell around 2 ft at 9 seconds will mix in through Fri. Friday night through Tuesday...Winds generally out of the south through Sunday night around Bermuda high, with slight increase in speeds on Sunday ahead of an approaching front. Frontal passage will lead to more variable wind directions on Monday. Seas around 2 feet through Saturday night, with 2-3 ft forecasted for Sunday and Monday as increased S wind chop mixes with SE swell. Best chance for widespread storms and potentially heavy rain over the waters will come late Sunday into Monday ahead of the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Increased fire concerns are present across most of the area due to low fuel moistures and current drought conditions. There are a couple of chances of rainfall over the next week, with potentially moderate rain late Sunday through Monday night, but is not expected to be enough to alleviate dry conditions. While the forecast, namely RH, remains above criteria for any NWS products, extra caution should be used, especially with the upcoming holiday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. SC...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for SCZ024-032-033- 039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...RGZ/VAO