465
FXUS62 KILM 021952
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
352 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures for July are expected on Wednesday as
high pressure builds in from the north. As the high moves
offshore later this week, increasing heat and humidity could
lead to elevated heat indices developing by the weekend and into
early next week. Diurnal coverage of showers and thunderstorms
begin to increase this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure to our north and subsidence aloft will maintain
quiet weather overnight and into Wednesday. Onshore flow
overnight may push some isolated showers over the coastal waters
onshore in parts of southern Georgetown county. These showers
are likely to be brief if they occur. Inland, lows could drop
into the mid or lower 60s with light winds overnight. Onshore
flow near the coast will keep things mixed and a few degrees
warmer than inland counterparts; lows in the lower 70s.

Quiet on Wednesday with subsidence aloft and high pressure
still dominating. Better moisture advection in the low levels
may allow for a few stray showers to develop over SC with a
strong inversion overhead. PoP is currently limited to around
10%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging aloft from the southwest will maintain subsidence
through the near term keeping the forecast dry. Surface high
pressure center shifts from north of the area to northeast,
allowing for low level southerly flow to redevelop. Seasonable
low temps (upper 60s - low 70s) Wednesday night will warm to
above normal for the 4th of July. Highs Thursday in the low to
mid 90s, with near 90F close to the coast. Plenty of July
sunshine with scattered diurnal clouds. Dewpoints will be a bit
higher than Wednesday, with forecasted heat indices in the
triple digits but just below heat advisory criteria. Above
normal low temps Thursday night in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Extended period of heat and humidity in store for the long term
period as center of surface high pressure shifts east of the
area, leading to dewpoints well into the 70s each day. Upper
level ridging still present Friday, albeit weaker, will weaken
further on Saturday. This will allow for a few afternoon storms
along I-95 Friday, and slightly greater coverage on Saturday.
The Carolinas will be between troughing to the west and an upper
low to the east Sunday into next week, with PWATs over 2" and
sufficient instability to warrant 40-50% chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms each day. Above normal temperatures
through the long term, with mid to upper 90s Friday and
Saturday, with mid 90s Sunday into next week. Elevated humidity
will lead to a chance for heat advisories (away from the coast)
every day Friday through Tuesday. Low temps in the mid 70s will
provide little relief.

One last note: while some parts of the eastern Carolinas did
pick up substantial rain over the past week, many did not. This
was most apparent across portions of South Carolina`s Pee Dee
region where 30-day rainfall totals are running less than 20
percent of normal. Data collected by authors of the U.S. Drought
Monitor show that agricultural impacts from the drought are
worsening quickly in this area. Since no substantial rainfall is
expected until at least the weekend, these drought conditions
will only continue to worsen.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Generally VFR. Onshore flow has allowed for some weak moisture
advection along the coast. As this continue tonight, the
immediate coast could see MVFR CIGs this evening and overnight.
Inland areas likely to remain VFR with boundary layer winds
preventing fog. VFR on Wednesday.

Extended Outlook...VFR should dominate through the end of the
work week. Slight chance of flight restrictions on Saturday as
chances for convection return.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday... Onshore flow continues through the next 24
hours. Dominant swell will continue to be a NE swell at around
3-4 feet and 6 seconds. Choppy seas will gradually improve
overnight as winds turn easterly into Wednesday. Easterly wind
wave on Wednesday will gradually diminish, yielding to an
increase SE swell. Throughout the day, a long-period SE swell
around 1 foot and 17 seconds will begin to push into the region.
The addition of NE to E wind waves and the multiple SE wave
sets could make for rough conditions by Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday Night through Saturday...Easterly winds over the
coastal waters will shift to southerly Thursday night, and
remain out of the south into next week with Bermuda high
reestablishing itself. Seas 2- 3 ft Wednesday night into the
weekend. Long period (2-3 ft at 11-12 sec) ESE swell from
Hurricane Beryl is expected to reach our area sometime on
Thursday, likely later in the afternoon, with some weaker
forerunner swells having possibly reached our area on
Wednesday. An 8-9 sec E swell will be mixed in for a few days,
with southerly wind chop joining the wave spectrum on Saturday.
Widely scattered thunderstorm chances return to the coastal
waters forecast Friday night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 9 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ107.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...21
MARINE...VAO/21