Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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912 FXUS62 KILM 011338 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 938 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms may accompany a cold front moving south across the Carolinas today. Cooler weather is expected to persist through Wednesday. Heat and humidity will return late in the week with good potential for heat indices to exceed 105 degrees beginning Friday. && .UPDATE... Cold front currently positioned across the area and push south and east late this morning. Showers and thunderstorms likely to develop as the front approaches the coast. Drier air aloft has dampened some of the heavy rain potential, but training storms could be an issue early this afternoon especially across coastal SC. Remaining cloudy today behind the front with winds increasing out of the NE. Gusts up to 20 mph possible this afternoon over southeastern NC. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front currently in Appalachia that is starting to push into the Piedmont. Lift ahead of this front has caused plenty of showers and thunderstorms just north of the local forecast area (in NWS Raleigh`s and Morehead City`s territory). However, showers and storms have more recently pushed onshore within the last hour or so, mostly spilling into the Cape Fear region. While the overnight rainfall has not been nearly as widespread as we`ve hoped, parts of New Hanover and Brunswick Counties have gotten some beneficial rain so far this morning, with some areas registering near an inch. Forcing will continue to get better towards sunrise this morning, with more showers and storms possibly on the way for the Cape Fear region especially. Cold front will start to push through the local forecast area later this morning, where more sufficient lift and instability will be present. However, dry air in the mid-levels looks to not only inhibit the severe weather chances, but also inhibit the coverage of the storms overall. Best forcing will either be offshore or well to the north, so areas along and west of I-95 may have trouble recording much of anything today. The timing of the front pushing towards the coast early this afternoon does time decently well with the seabreeze, and the convergence of those two boundaries could be something to watch. This may create a more organized line of storms that starts to spawn along the coastal counties by midday, and pushing offshore by late in the afternoon. Plenty of cloud cover today couple with northeasterly winds this afternoon will bring some much needed relief with the temperatures. Highs today only reach the lower 80s at best. In fact, it would not be surprising if some parts of southeast NC only reach the mid-to- upper 70s. No Heat Advisory concerns today. Hooray! Winds aloft pull northwesterly tonight, allowing for some noticeably cooler and drier air to settle in. Better clearing takes place inland, but coastal areas may still deal with some thicker cloud cover tonight. Comfortable lows dip down into the low-to-mid 60s inland, near 70 at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Today`s cold front should be stalled near the Florida-Georgia state line Tuesday. Mid and upper level subtropical ridging will spread east from the southern Plains across the Ozarks and toward the Carolinas by Wednesday. The mid and upper levels should remain dry with the ridge, but low level easterly winds between the old decaying front and high pressure moving off New England may produce isolated showers across southern portions of the Grand Strand through the period. The biggest story for the midweek period is going to be the below normal temperatures, particularly noteworthy compared to what we`ve been through this month. Florence, SC has just had 19 consecutive days with highs in the 90s and 100s, and North Myrtle Beach has had two recent days with low temperatures in the 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The upper level ridge should settle across the Carolinas late this week, deflecting the jet stream and main storm track toward the Canadian border. This ridge should also ensure Caribbean and Gulf tropical cyclones can`t gain latitude to affect the Southeast states. Nestled beneath this ridge and its subsidence, hot July sun will start to bake the Carolinas again. We`re looking at highs climbing back into the 90s away from the beaches again by Thursday, then soaring into the middle to upper 90s Friday and Saturday. Coupled with dewpoints increasing back into the mid 70s, heat indices could exceed 105 degrees Friday and could even approach 110 degrees on Saturday. Even with the high parked overhead it`s almost impossible to say there won`t be isolated showers and thunderstorms around this time of year. Forecast rain chances are negligible Thursday, then increase slightly Friday and Saturday with surging boundary layer dewpoints. The GFS maintains strong ridging into Sunday but the ECMWF and Canadian shift the center offshore with falling heights from a train of shortwaves over the Great Lakes. This should allow the subsidence inversion to weaken and we may see an uptick in the coverage of showers and storms early next week. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Lull in the activity continues to open the 12Z TAF period, with ceilings firmly in MVFR across the area. Coastal terminals (particularly KILM) look to have a round of convection this afternoon in the 15-19Z window. Used TEMPO groups for this. IFR visibilities possible in TSRA. Winds WSW for now, with a few gusts at or above 20kts at the coast. Cold front will slowly move through today, causing gradual veering of the winds to westerly to northwesterly to northeasterly. Should go back to VFR by this evening for the inland terminals, while the coastal terminals should get there sometime overnight tonight. Extended Outlook...VFR should dominate through the end of the work week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Stiff southwesterly winds noted currently, with frequent gusts at or just above 20kts. Cold front approaches the area this morning, and as it starts to move through, winds gradually veer westerly, then quickly northerly by this afternoon. Front slows down and the gradient builds. Winds shift northeasterly by early this evening, with sustained speeds clocking in at 20kts. Wouldn`t be surprised to have gusts up to 25kts, but holding off on a Small Craft Advisory for now. Not sure of those 25kt gusts are going to be very consistent. Seas at 2-4ft increase to 3-5ft by this evening. Tuesday through Friday Night...Today`s cold front should be stalled near the Florida-Georgia state line Tuesday morning. Northeasterly winds 15-20 kt here across the Carolinas will gradually diminish in speed through Wednesday while veering more easterly as high pressure moves from the Great Lakes across New England, then off the East Coast. Our winds should finally veer southerly as the ridge gets farther offshore Thursday afternoon. From there through the weekend it`s a typical summer pattern with daily seabreezes and south to southwest winds expected to dominate, along with isolated showers and thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Although there has been isolated heavy rainfall in spots over the past few days, the current U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate drought (D1) across portions of eastern North and South Carolina. This drought has developed due to 60 day rainfall totals running well below normal plus recent hot, dry weather. Some areas closer to the coast (particularly the Cape Fear region) may get some beneficial rainfall totals today, but it does not look as widespread as we once hoped. After this cold front moves out tonight, hot and mostly dry weather redevelop late in the week. Heat indices may push above 105 degrees by this weekend. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...IGB SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...IGB MARINE...TRA/IGB FIRE WEATHER...