![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
882 FXUS63 KICT 011135 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 635 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms this morning, especially across central KS - Heat and humidity return this afternoon and Tuesday; Wednesday-Thursday across southern KS - Severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening - Additional storm chances through the week and into next weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 As of 3 AM Monday morning, broad low and midlevel WAA continues to generate showers and storms across mainly central KS. Meager midlevel lapse rates (~6 C/km) are limiting instability to a few hundred J/kg. Effective shear remains quite weak (less than 30 kt) which is resulting in minimal updraft organization and predominately pulse convection. As a result, the chief concerns are brief heavy rainfall and hail up to dime size. More impactful, heat and humidity will return to much of the area today and Tuesday as midlevel ridging amplifies overhead. Temperatures will once again surge through the 90s and near the 100 degree mark. A moist boundary layer, characterized by dew points in the 70s, will create heat index values around 105 this afternoon. A northern stream trough will shunt the frontal zone southward into our area late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ahead of the front, another hot and humid afternoon is expected with heat index values around 105 once again. The frontal zone may slide into central KS early Tuesday afternoon, keeping heat index values below 100 degrees. As such, have opted for a Heat Advisory for areas along and southeast of a line from Salina to Lyons. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening along the front across portions of central and south central KS. Effective shear up to 30 kt may support some updraft organization. Otherwise, the chief concerns will remain damaging winds up to 70 mph and heavy rainfall. Increasing WAA over the frontal zone Tuesday night/Wednesday morning should result in more-widespread convection. Convective concerns should transition to a heavy rainfall threat with the possibility of training storms. The frontal zone will remain stalled across the area Wednesday into Thursday. Continued WAA across the frontal zone will yield additional showers and storms. Immediately south of the front (near the OK border), hot temperatures and humid conditions may contribute to heat index values around 105 Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. An active weather pattern into next weekend should keep temperatures near average with additional rain/storm chances. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Several aviation concerns are expected over the next 24 hours. This morning, a cluster of showers and storms have been gradually moving out of central Kansas and into eastern and northeast Kansas. As such, KSLN may see vicinity thunder for the first couple of hours of the TAF period. Additionally, a few showers may pass near KCNU and surrounding areas over the next handful of hours, but chances are low enough to omit a mention in the TAF for now. Later this morning into the afternoon hours, breezy southerly winds are expected across portions of south-central and central Kansas. Wind gusts around 20 to 30 knots will be possible at times. As surface winds decrease this evening, a strengthening LLJ could promote modest LLWS across the area tonight and overnight. Additional showers and storms are possible along and north of the I-70 corridor towards the latter 6 hours of the TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093-098>100. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ049>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRB AVIATION...JC