182
FXUS63 KICT 011747
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1247 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms this morning, especially across
  central KS

- Heat and humidity return this afternoon and Tuesday;
  Wednesday-Thursday across southern KS

- Severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening

- Additional storm chances through the week and into next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

As of 3 AM Monday morning, broad low and midlevel WAA continues to
generate showers and storms across mainly central KS. Meager
midlevel lapse rates (~6 C/km) are limiting instability to a few
hundred J/kg. Effective shear remains quite weak (less than 30 kt)
which is resulting in minimal updraft organization and predominately
pulse convection. As a result, the chief concerns are brief heavy
rainfall and hail up to dime size.

More impactful, heat and humidity will return to much of the area
today and Tuesday as midlevel ridging amplifies overhead.
Temperatures will once again surge through the 90s and near the 100
degree mark. A moist boundary layer, characterized by dew points in
the 70s, will create heat index values around 105 this afternoon. A
northern stream trough will shunt the frontal zone southward into
our area late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ahead of the front, another
hot and humid afternoon is expected with heat index values around
105 once again. The frontal zone may slide into central KS early
Tuesday afternoon, keeping heat index values below 100 degrees. As
such, have opted for a Heat Advisory for areas along and southeast
of a line from Salina to Lyons.

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop late Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday evening along the front across portions of central and
south central KS. Effective shear up to 30 kt may support some
updraft organization. Otherwise, the chief concerns will remain
damaging winds up to 70 mph and heavy rainfall. Increasing WAA over
the frontal zone Tuesday night/Wednesday morning should result in
more-widespread convection. Convective concerns should transition to
a heavy rainfall threat with the possibility of training storms.

The frontal zone will remain stalled across the area Wednesday into
Thursday. Continued WAA across the frontal zone will yield
additional showers and storms. Immediately south of the front (near
the OK border), hot temperatures and humid conditions may contribute
to heat index values around 105 Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
An active weather pattern into next weekend should keep temperatures
near average with additional rain/storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

SCT MVFR clouds may linger for a few hours early to mid this
afternoon at CNU and SLN. Otherwise, breezy/gusty south winds
will prevail regionwide through Tuesday. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop over northwest Kansas early this evening,
with some of this activity possibly reaching RSL-GBD-SLN toward
midnight and beyond. The primary threats with this activity
will be brief heavy rain and gusty/erratic winds. Otherwise, a
stout southerly low-level jet will support low-level wind shear
areawide tonight into early Tuesday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093-098>100.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ049>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRB
AVIATION...ADK