793
FXUS63 KICT 020541
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat will continue through early this evening and
  again on Tuesday.

- Severe storms possible late Tue afternoon and evening along a
  weak cold front.

- Pattern looks to remain active for both Wed and Thu with
  severe storms and flooding possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows upper troughing moving into
the Northern Rockies and extending down into the Great Basin.
Meanwhile, upper ridging is centered across the Arklatex region.
At the surface, warm front continues to lift north and is
currently situated from NW KS into southwest MO. Meanwhile, low
pressure continues to strengthen over northeast CO/far western
Nebraska.

Storms are expected to develop shortly from Western Nebraska
into northwest KS ahead of the shortwave with this line of
storms forecast to slowly slide east tonight. Some of this
activity may clip Russell/Lincoln counties generally around
05z, but confidence remains high that the more widespread
convection will remain over Nebraska. Upper trough is expected
to continue tracking east and will be moving out across the
Central/Northern Plains on Tue. This will allow a cold front to
sag south which will likely be aided by outflow from overnight
convection. Current thinking is that storms will develop along
it generally after 18z Tue and likely closer to 21z with the
front by this time forecast to generally stretch northwest of
the Kansas Turnpike. With CAPE values 2500-3000J/KG and 30-40kts
of effective shear, severe storms will be possible with large
hail and downburst winds the main threats. This activity will
likely linger into the evening hours Tue.

By Wed morning, another piece of energy is expected to be diving
southeast across the Northern Intermountain and into the Great
Basin by the afternoon hours. Confidence is high that an MCS
will develop out across the Central High Plains on Wed evening
ahead of the unseasonably strong shortwave. This will likely be
across Western Nebraska into Northwest KS with this activity
tracking east overnight. Another area to watch for storms Wed
will be over far southeast KS into the Ozark region, where a
remnant outflow boundary maybe situated. As the shortwave tracks
across the Central Plains, there is good model agreement in a
cold front surging south across the forecast area and will
likely be the focus for storms Thu afternoon/evening. Current
thinking is that the front will be near or southeast of the KS
Turnpike when storms develop with storms likely continuing into
the evening hours Thu. Deep layer shear will not be overly
impressive with this activity, but there should be enough
instability for some strong/severe storms and heavy rainfall.

We should finally get a break from storm chances for Fri-Sat as
the upper impulse lifts into the Great Lakes region. We then
look to get into northwest flow aloft with a few weak upper
perturbations sliding through that should allow for at least
some small storm chances starting Sunday.

After Tue, we look to return closer to seasonal temperatures
with the exception being Thu across far southern KS, which may
flirt with the century mark again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period.
Southerly winds remain gusty with speeds up to 30 kt. As such,
LLWS concerns have been mitigated despite a 45-50 kt LLJ near
2.0 kft. A cold front will push into the area this afternoon,
shifting winds to the north and northeast at RSL, GBD, SLN, and
HUT. Uncertainty arises whether the front makes it through ICT
and CNU by the end of the period. Thunderstorm chances increase
around 00Z and beyond, especially at HUT and ICT. Addressed this
potential with PROB 30 groups for now.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ049>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...BMB