370
FXUS63 KICT 041122
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing storms continue to move eastward into eastern KS

- Chance for additional storms this afternoon/evening

- Heat indices near 105 this afternoon across southeast KS

- Seasonal temperatures Friday and beyond with multiple rain chances
  over the next 7 days

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

As of 3 AM, a decaying MCS was progressing across eastern KS.
Satellite trends over the past hour or so reveal warming cloud tops
and a decreasing in the threat for severe weather. Additional
showers and storms have developed within a broad zone of low to
midlevel WAA across western KS. This activity may make an
attempt to move into central KS later this morning.

The main challenge through the short term period is the position of
the outflow boundary/effective front for afternoon/evening storm
potential and heat concerns. At this time, the effective front
extends from Cowley County into northeast KS. Festering
convection along the boundary should continue to reinforce the
cold pool and slowly push the boundary southward. Latest short
range ensemble and deterministic guidance suggests the effective
front will progress into northeast OK into southern MO. This
scenario would decrease the potential for severe storms, though
not complete eliminate the threat. Should the front stall in
southeast KS, the strongest storms would be capable of damaging
winds up to 70 mph and heavy rain.

In regards to heat concerns, the southern trend with the
frontal position would keep air temperatures cooler and in the
low to mid 90s. Unfortunately, that doesn`t rid of the potential
for excessive heat. Reduced mixing immediately behind the
boundary will likely see dew points surge back into the mid to
upper 70s. Combining these 2 would result in heat indices near
105 from southern Chautauqua through Labette counties. Short
term trends will need to be monitored this morning to determine
if a heat advisory is needed.

Dry conditions are forecast to return tonight into Friday as surface
ridge slides into the area. Increasing WAA late Friday night into
Saturday morning combined with a northern stream shortwave trough
progressing across the northern Plains may yield a few showers and
storms. This WAA pattern will continue into Saturday and may allow
for showers/storms to continue through the daytime hours.

Transitioning into Sunday and beyond, northwesterly midlevel flow
will become established with a series of shortwave trough axis`
moving across the Plains into next week. This will result in
the continuation of the active precipitation pattern and
seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

After a busy night, quieter conditions are expected across the
area. However, there will be some concerns throughout the TAF
period.

Currently, lingering showers remain across some parts of far
southern and southeast Kansas. Also, MVFR to IFR cigs were
building into portions of central Kansas, and may impact KSLN,
KGBD, and KRSL through 16Z this morning. Thereafter, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail across the area.

That being said, a frontal boundary has entered into the area,
and a wind shift from a light southeasterly drift to more
uniform northerly winds is expected throughout the day. This
front should be located east of the Flint Hills by 21Z this
afternoon, and isolated showers and storms could develop near
KCNU and surrounding areas. After 00Z this evening, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the
TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRB
AVIATION...JC