105
FXUS63 KICT 021119
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
619 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices around 105
  to 110 this afternoon and early evening.

- Strong to severe storms are expected to develop late this
  afternoon and this evening across the area.

- Additional strong to severe storm chances are expected
  Wednesday and Independence Day.

- Near average temperatures expected this weekend and the
  beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows a trough
digging into the northern/central plains with widespread convection
across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. A few showers developed at
the nose of a stout LLJ across central and northern Kansas, but
meager instability is preventing any thunderstorm development at
this time.

Throughout the day a frontal boundary will sag across
central and south-central Kansas, and despite breezy conditions,
dewpoints are expected to remain in the 60s and low 70s. With
compressional warming ahead/along the boundary, temperatures will
likely be in the upper 90s to low 100s. These hot and humid
conditions will likely promote heat indices around 105 to 110.
Meanwhile, a jet max will round the base of the passing upper
trough, and much of Kansas will reside in the right entrance region
of the jet max. Surface convergence along the front and upper
diffluence should allow for scattered thunderstorm development along
the frontal boundary this afternoon and evening. While shear will be
modest, and storm mode will be messy, 1500 to 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE
will be capable of supporting storms that could produce up to half-
dollar sized hail upon initial development. Also, over 1200 to 1500
DCAPE would suggest storm could produce 60 to 70 mph winds. The
landspout/tornado threat does appear low at this time, but trends
will need to be monitored this afternoon. Storms should gradually
coalesce and line segments could produce additional severe wind
gusts during the nighttime hours before storms weaken due the loss
of diurnal heating.

Much of Kansas looks to remain in a similar regime come Wednesday
with the lingering frontal boundary still draped across the state
and upper level diffluence remaining present. As a result,
additional showers and storms are forecast during the day on
Wednesday. Some of these storms could be strong to marginally
severe, but much of the activity will likely remain benign. A strong
MCS is expected to develop across the High Plains Wednesday
afternoon, but the eastward extent will be called into question
given the lack of instability across the forecast area from shower
and thunderstorm activity expected throughout the day on Wednesday.
If this complex of storms enters the northern and western portions
of the forecast area, then wind gusts around 60 to 70 mph could be
possible.

Lingering showers and storms remain in the forecast for Thursday
before significant rain chances come to an end. The frontal boundary
mentioned previously will likely remain across southern Kansas, and
it`s possible showers and storms could interrupt many Independence
Day celebrations across southern and southeast Kansas. Trends will
need to be monitored as much of what occurs on Wednesday will likely
determine what happens on Thursday. The main story after Thursday
will be cooler temperatures as both afternoon highs and overnight
lows will be near average for this time of year going into the
weekend and the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions expected through at least 21Z, then thunderstorm
development expected to impact aviation interests thereafter.

This morning, a strong LLJ is inducing robust low-level wind
shear across the area. This should subside by late morning or
early afternoon, but breezy southern winds should continue south
of an approaching cold front. This cold front will accompany a
wind shift from southerly to northeasterly, and it will also be
the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon.

Some storms that develop this afternoon and evening could be
strong to severe with the main concerns being up to half-dollar
sized hail and localized 50 to 60-knot wind gusts. After 03Z,
chances for severe weather decrease, but lingering showers and
storms could continue to impact TAF sites through the remainder
of the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ049>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC