565
FXUS63 KICT 281128
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions yielding heat index values up to
  106 this afternoon

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening into tonight

- Active weather pattern into next week with roller-coaster-like
  temperatures

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

As of 230 AM Friday morning, rounds of convection have been ongoing
across portions of south central KS in response to a 45-50 kt LLJ.
As the jet continues to veer over the next few hours, the coverage
of convection should decrease. Further north, a surface trough axis
extends from northwest KS into central portions of NE and SD. This
frontal zone is forecast to slide southward through the day today.
Ahead of the front, another hot and humid afternoon is expected with
temperatures surging towards 100 degrees. Coupling in dew points in
the 60s to near 70 will create heat index values up to 106 with the
warmest across southern and southeast KS. By late afternoon, the
frontal zone will be positioned from central KS into northeast KS.
While large scale ascent will remain quite meager, minimal
inhibition and modest convergence along the boundary should allow
for a few storms to develop. Inverted-V soundings and PW values
above 1.5" will support damaging winds near 60 mph and heavy
rainfall. A second area of convection may develop across northeast
CO and adjacent areas of NE/KS. This convection may grow upscale and
propagate southeastward. Again, large scale ascent remains weak,
therefore confidence in MCS maintenance into central KS is quite
low.

The frontal zone will sag further south into Saturday before
stalling near the OK state line. This should yield cooler
temperatures for most areas with highs in the 80s and 90s. The
warmest will be along the OK border. Again, large scale ascent will
remain meager through the daytime hours Saturday, although weak
convergence may yield a few storms. Better chances for storms
arrive Saturday night into Sunday morning as 30-35 kt LLJ
overspreads the frontal zone.

The heat will return area-wide Monday and Tuesday as the front
retreats northward and midlevel ridging amplifies overhead.
Temperatures will once again approach the 100 degree mark. A
northern stream trough will shunt the frontal zone southward into
our area late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will set the stage for
another break from the heat and additional storm chances through
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. An area of
showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to move eastward
across eastern KS. -SHRA and VCTS will continue at CNU through
14Z. Otherwise, southerly winds will remain in the 10-20 kt
range at all sites. As a frontal zone sinks into the area,
winds will become light and variable during the mid to late
afternoon period. Additional storms are possible late this
evening into the overnight but confidence is much too low for
introduction at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF