795
FXUS63 KICT 110531
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1231 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storm or two possible this afternoon/evening in
  central Kansas, and eastern KS tonight

- Can`t rule out an isolated storm across southeast Kansas
  tomorrow afternoon

- Heat will build over the region Friday through Tuesday. Heat
  indices of 100 to 105 degrees are likely area wide Sunday
  through Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Isolated storms are expected to continue across central KS for
at least the next few hours as a subtle shortwave trough near
700 mb drifts across southern NE and northern KS. Latest radar
analysis reveals largely pulse convection, which corresponds
well with mesoanalysis suggesting upwards of 30 kts of effective
shear being present. The most significant risk is damaging winds
as downdraft cape is near 1400 J/kg across central KS. Short
term CAM solutions hint at convection continuing overnight.
Confidence is low with that solution as moisture near and above
850 mb is quite low, suggesting the potential for elevated
convection is small.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

A trough was near eastern South Dakota early this morning
and continues to track southward toward the Mississippi Valley
today. An isolated storm or two remains possible across the area
later this afternoon. However better confidence exists for a
couple showers and storms late tonight mainly across eastern KS
as a mid level baroclinic zone remains draped over the area,
combined with marginal warm moisture advection. Can`t rule out
an isolated shower or storm across southeast KS tomorrow as a
progressive wave moves through the main Mid Mississippi Valley
trough. In either case, severe weather is not expected.

After tomorrow any chance of showers and storms are looking
bleak area wide as ridging will dominate the pattern thru the
middle of next week. Highs will approach the upper 90s to around
100 Friday with multiple days of temperatures near or above 100
degrees Saturday thru Tuesday. The greatest heat indices of 100
to 106 are expected in the afternoon Sunday through Tuesday.
Little relief to the heat is expected from Sunday night thru
Tuesday night with overnight low temperatures in the upper 70s
to near 80 degrees possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Isolated showers and storms may linger into the overnight hours
while slowly dissipating, however most locations are expected
to remain dry. Light southerly winds are anticipated with VFR
prevailing at all locations. An isolated afternoon shower or
storm may pop up this afternoon, although chances remain too low
to mention in area TAFs.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BRB
DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...MWM