Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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895 FXUS63 KICT 270517 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1217 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm potential (50-60%) early Thursday morning mainly in northern KS and again Thursday evening into the overnight - Cooler Thursday but warmer on Friday with heat indices of 100-109 - Temperatures and heat indices around 100 degrees early next week - Chances for showers and storms each evening/overnight with the highest confidence in north central KS && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Challenges: 1) Precipitation chances, coverage and intensity 2) Temperatures on Thu Changes: 1) Delayed arrival of precipitation until 9-12Z(4-7AM) 2) Some adjustments to precip chances and temperatures Temperatures were somewhat cooler this afternoon compared to yesterday depending on your location with a greater disparity by about 10 degrees in north central Kansas to about 5 degrees in southern Kansas. Heat indices were mainly in the 90s with a few locations across southern Kansas reaching the century mark. An occasional breeze helped the feels like factor. The wave that came off of the Great Basin continues to track east into the Front Range. Convective initiation is anticipated in response along the Front Range late this afternoon/early this evening which will gradually push to the east. General model consensus even in the shorter term CAMs is that this activity won`t reach central Kansas until closer to 9-12Z (4-7AM). Therefore the precipitation chances have been shifted later than previously forecast. Higher confidence exists for showers and storms over north central Kansas with less certainty in the southern extent depending on how things hold together; 50-60% chances exist over the northern locations. Intensity of the storms should be decreasing the further east that they track; however, you cannot rule out strong gusty marginally severe winds. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the high precipitable water values means heavy rainfall too. Another wave will move into the High Plains Thursday afternoon prompting the next round of shower and storm potential during the evening into the overnight hours; this would be in addition to any outflow boundaries from the early morning activity. Convective initiation may start out west then move east with the highest chances (40-50%) over northern Kansas, but it could occur along the outflow boundaries of north central Kansas with the aid of diurnal heating. A similar story is expected for Friday evening and night. There is more frontogenesis for the latter time period with the boundary hanging out across southern Kansas on Saturday which would shift the higher potential across southern Kansas instead from the afternoon through the overnight hours. The best chances (50-65%) are after midnight. After that the ridge builds in with the main precipitation potential shifting off to the north. Some of the development in the High Plains could clip north central Kansas depending on what develops out west with 20-30% chances in each late evening/overnight period. Another wave on Tuesday could spread those chances further south. Forecast temperatures are essentially like bouncing a ball back and forth with values near the century mark then closer to or below seasonal normal (90 degrees) for a day or two before rising back up again. Thursday should be cooler than today with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s which is near to below seasonal normal. Depending on the cloud cover and lingering precipitation, temperatures may need to be adjusted downward. A mostly dry Friday means the bounce back to the century mark will occur with heat indices around 105 to 109; thankfully a breezy day is anticipated with wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph which should help those working or spending time outdoors. The forecast ball bounces down again for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period. Southeasterly low level flow will increase by late Thursday morning and become gusty thru the day across central Kansas. An approaching shortwave aloft will help promote scattered showers/isolated thunder after sunrise with highest confidence along/west of I-135. KED && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...VJP AVIATION...KED