344
FXUS64 KHUN 011734
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 906 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Dry weather is forecast today with mostly sunny skies as sfc high
pressure builds into the area from the north. Post-frontal high
temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s-
bringing little relief following the hot weekend. However, dew
points have dropped into the 60s throughout much of the area
already this morning and are expected to continue to fall into the
upper 50s this afternoon- allowing it to feel much cooler than
the past few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The comfortable weather will extend to the overnight period as
a mostly clear sky will allow for good radiational cooling as
temperatures fall back into the mid 60s in most locations.
However, this reprieve from the heat will be short-lived as
Gulf moisture begins to filter back into the region, modifying the
air mass. High pressure will continue to promote ample sunshine
and mostly rain-free conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, but
temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 90s both days.
These temperatures, combined with much higher RH values, will
push peak heat index values into the 100-104 range on Tuesday and
the 105-109 range on Wednesday. It`s possible a Heat Advisory may
be needed by Wednesday -- with heat impacts continuing through the
remainder of the week. More on this in the section below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

An upper ridge will continue to maintain its hold over the
southeastern states to start the long term. However, a shortwave
trough moving over the north-central CONUS and Midwest will cause the
ridge to flatten over the Tennessee Valley on Friday. This impulse
will quickly progress to the northeast into Canada on Saturday; but,
the parent trough will persist over the central portion of the
country through the weekend as the aforementioned ridge is pushed
over the Deep South and off over the Atlantic. The surface pattern
will largely mirror the upper level pattern, as surface high pressure
over the Southeast is shunted south and eastward as a cold front
moves over the Mississippi Valley on Friday. This front looks to
slowly make its way towards the Tennessee Valley by early Saturday,
then stall over the region and weaken by Sunday.

For sensible weather, expect daily chances of showers and storms
increasing through Friday where medium to high chances (50-70%) are
forecast. Medium chances (40-50%) continue on Saturday, then decrease
to low (20-30%) by Sunday as the surface front weakens over the
region. While models show ample instability through the weekend,
shear is fairly meager on Thursday and Friday. Therefore,
anticipating the usual summertime thunderstorms that may produce
brief, heavy downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds. Although,
some guidance indicates that shear values increase to between 20-25
knots or so on Saturday. This would suggest that some stronger storms
may be possible on Saturday. However, we will continue to monitor
these trends over the next few days.

The other concern for the long term period will be the heat,
particularly on Thursday (Independence Day holiday) and Friday. High
temperatures these days are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s.
Dew points are also expected to be in the lower to mid 70s during the
day, with lows Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights in the lower
to mid 70s. This will result a major risk of heat for much of the
local area both Thursday and Friday (according the the NWS HeatRisk
tool). Just strictly looking at heat indices, we`re looking at
generally between 100-109 degrees both days as well. These will be
the days to watch for any potential heat products, but please
remember heat safety this 4th of July holiday! Take frequent breaks
in the shade, wear loose-fitting and light-colored clothing, and stay
hydrated! A very slightly cooler weekend will then follow as highs
top out in the lower 90s with lows Saturday night in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Gusty winds from the northeast at 15 to 17 knots throughout the
afternoon and expected to calm overnight. VFR conditions expected
to remain throughout the TAF period. Very low chance of fog,
however, confidence remains low that it will impact the terminal.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...HC/SPG