043
FXUS64 KHUN 041336
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
836 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 836 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A tranquil start to this Independence Day as sunshine is in
abundance across the Tennessee Valley. With the upper level ridge
still remaining over the Southeast, expect a similar day to
yesterday with hot and humid conditions and low chances for
afternoon thunderstorms. The Heat Advisory continues with
afternoon highs forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s with max
heat index values between 100F-109F, with the highest values
further to the west. While we are not expecting any severe
thunderstorms, any storm that does develop will have the potential
to produce gusty winds and locally heavy downpours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The Heat Advisory continues overnight due to the very limited
relief from the heat as low temperatures will again range between
75 to 80 degrees in most locations. A mid/upper trough will pivot
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes late tonight into
Friday. Hi-Res guidance shows an MCS developing along this
boundary well to our north and west this evening over the Ozarks
and drifting toward the Mid South vicinity by early Friday
morning. This activity will likely weaken considerably as its
remnants move into the Tennessee mid/late Friday morning, but it
will still bring some low to medium chances for showers and storms
along with higher cloud cover.

Additional convection will likely redevelop later in the
afternoon/evening along this remnant boundary, where coverage is
forecast to be much higher (80-100%). Depending on how much
destabilization can occur, a few of these storms may become
locally strong with gusty winds and heavy downpours being the
threats. These clouds and high rain chances will be the "wild
card" with respect to heat impacts on Friday. Given highs still
progged to reach the mid 90s and peak heat indices still forecast
to exceed or come close to 105 degrees, will maintain the Heat
Advisory through 7 PM Friday. Should more heating become apparent
and/or rain chances lessen, another solid day of widespread
dangerous heat will likely evolve in this hot/humid air mass.

The frontal boundary will push south and east into central Alabama
Friday night into Saturday. However, with this boundary still in
our vicinity low chances for showers/storms will remain in the
forecast for Saturday. A slightly cooler/drier air mass will help
to keep the dangerous heat at bay, however. Highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s will be common -- with peak heat index values
remaining below 100 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

On Sunday, upper level ridging looks to be stretched over the
Atlantic and down through the Deep South. A large upper trough will
dominate the central CONUS but also extend up into the Ohio Valley
and Canada. This leaves the local area in southwesterly flow aloft,
and this will continue through at least Monday night until the trough
finally starts to swing to the east/northeast on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The surface front that is slated to move south of the area
on Saturday is expected to meander over this region through early
next week. Another cold front is then anticipated to progress over
the Ohio Valley by midweek.

For sensible weather, after a dry day on Sunday, daily chances
(generally low to medium, 30-60%) of showers and storms are forecast
through midweek. This is especially true during peak heating
(afternoon hours). Sufficient instability for thunderstorm
development is anticipated, along with shear around 20 knots. While
severe weather is not expected at this time, heavy downpours,
lightning, and some gusty winds will all be possible in any
thunderstorms that do develop. Additionally, the chances of
showers/storms and amount of cloud cover will cause temperatures to
be slightly cooler than we`ve seen this week, with values in the
lower to mid 90s Sunday and Monday and upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday
and Wednesday. Expecting lows to mainly be in the upper 60s lower
70s each night. Even though the forecast calls for a bit cooler
conditions, it will still be warm (especially early next week).
Please continue to be cautious if you have outdoor plans. Take breaks
in the shade and stay hydrated!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each
terminal through the period. Have added a PROB30 at both sites
between 21-00z for the possibility of an isolated TSRA impacting
either terminal and causing brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise,
a mostly clear sky and light winds will prevail through the
period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP