718
FXUS64 KHUN 051953
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
253 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Conditions should be mostly settled by tonight. Some lingering mid
and upper-level clouds are possible over the Cumberland Plateau
earlier tonight. Although, much of the night should be mostly
clear, with some Cu. This should allow for temperatures to drop
steadily into the low to mid-70s across northern AL. Some cooler
pockets in Lincoln, Moore, and Franklin, TN counties may even drop
below 70 by day break, with help from the cold front. Winds should
also become pretty light and variable by late morning.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday Night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

An upper level trough is currently making its way through the Ohio
Valley. This feature is helping to drag a surface front through
the TN Valley on Saturday. As this feature moves south, it should
help to displace and briefly weaken the upper-level high that has
been dominating the weather most of this week. This is expected
to help bring us some slightly drier air for both Saturday and
Sunday. Afternoon highs should still warm into the 90s, still very
warm. The good news, is that any excessive heat risk should
remain low as the apparent temperatures are forecasted to feel
like the ambient temperature. Winds should also remain fairly
light from the north. PoPs should stay low, but a shower or two is
possible in SE areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

By Monday, we will be back in a warm sectored airmass with upper
ridging centered off the Atlantic Coast and an upper trough making
its way through the central Plains and into the Midwest. The
upper ridge over the Atlantic looks to remain dominant over a
large portion of the Southeast through at least the mid-week
period, as the upper trough becomes less amplified as it moves
across the Great Lakes and into Canada. This will keep near
seasonable temperatures (highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s) in
place with daily chances for rain and storms, peaking (40-60%)
during the afternoon diurnal heating hours. The track of the
eventual remnants of Hurricane Beryl is still pretty uncertain at
this time, and low confidence exists regarding whether or not the
Tennessee Valley will see any rain from this system or not. For
that reason, have stuck with blended guidance for PoPs given that
it is at the 6-7 day range which suggest a 30-50% PoP Wednesday
and Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s
each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected at KMSL and KHSV for the duration of
the TAF period. Winds for the rest of the day should primarily be
out of the SW at about 5 kts. There is a possibility for a storm
or two near both terminals later today, but confidence is too low
to include in the TAFs. A cold front should come through tomorrow
around 9-10z. This is expected to shift the winds from the N at
about 5-10 kts tomorrow morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Serre
SHORT TERM....Serre
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...Serre