Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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631 FXUS64 KHUN 291713 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1213 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 918 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Despite current morning cloud cover, an incredibly hot and humid day is forecast to unfold. Eroding of morning cloud cover can already be seen in our western counties with surface heating working to progress clearing from west to east. The mostly clear conditions will allow temps to rapidly rise into the mid to high 90s. Coupled with dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat indices will be well above 100 with a heat advisory in effect for our western counties from 12 PM to 8 PM. For anyone partaking in outdoor activities (including those not in the heat advisory) extra precautions will need to be taken to account for the sun and heat including staying hydrated and taking breaks in shade and AC. Diurnal convection will be able to take advantage of peak afternoon heating and surface moisture to fire up a few pop up showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Best chances (30-50%) will be east of I-65 along the western periphery of high pressure. Any storms that ignite will pose a threat for frequent lightning. Fortunately these diurnally driven storms will loose fuel after sunset and rain chances will drop to below 10% for the remainder of the night. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 We`ll be in store for another very warm night across the Tennessee Valley, with lows in the mid 70s in most locations. Sunday also looks to be another hot/humid day across the area, with highs in the low to mid 90s once again. The combination of mid 70s dewpoints and these high temperatures will once again push heat index values close to Advisory criteria. However, cloud cover will be more of a factor on Sunday as a weak front pushes into the region and expect mostly cloud conditions and medium/high chances of showers and thunderstorms to develop later in the day in accordance with the front moving in and peak heating. Depending on how much the atmosphere can destabilize, a couple strong storms can`t be ruled out. A slightly "cooler" and drier air mass will arrive early next week in wake of the front for Monday and a noticeably more comfortable night will be in store with lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The heat and humidity will return mid to late week, including the 4th of July holiday as a strong mid/upper ridge will build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, extending southward into the Tennessee Valley. This will keep stalled boundaries (and their focus for convection) well south along the Gulf Coast and allow a hot/humid air mass to settle into the region. This will push daytime highs into the mid to upper 90s and heat index values easily into the 100-105 degree range by Tuesday and potentially above 105 degrees (Advisory criteria) for Wednesday and Thursday (4th of July). Additional heat products may be needed later next week. Low/medium chances (20-40%) for diurnally driven convection will be present each day, but most locations will remain dry. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions will likely prevail at both terminals through the duration of the TAF period. This afternoon there will be a low chance of isolated storms. With low confidence in location this was not included in the TAF. Overnight clouds will lift and winds will calm. Sunday morning winds will pick back up slightly from the NW with additional low chances for storms. Again, this was not included in the TAF due to very low confidence in storm coverage. Beyond 18Z tomorrow is when storm coverage will increase. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>008-016. TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....AMP LONG TERM....AMP AVIATION...RAD