050
FXUS64 KHGX 020413
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1113 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

3 PM surface observations across SE TX indicate yet another hot
and humid afternoon across the region, with most stations
reporting temperatures in the mid/upper 90s and dew point values
in the low/mid 70s. The presence of a weak boundary over Louisiana
has allowed for the development of scattered thunderstorms to our
east, which have produced an inch or two or rainfall across
portions of E TX and SE LA. As this line of storms shifts slowly
westward over the next few hours, we could see locations mainly
east of the I-45 corridor picking up some measurable rainfall.
However, neither flooding nor severe weather is expected with this
activity.

Aside from this scattered rainfall, the main weather story
continues to surround the potential for excessive heat. Synoptic
conditions remain relatively unchanged, with the South Central
CONUS well within the grasp of a ~598 dam ridge at 500mb. This has
contributed to the hot and relatively rain-free stretch of weather
of late, and no major change to the pattern is expected in the
immediate term. As such, overnight lows for both today and
tomorrow will remain in the upper 70s inland and low 80s along
the coast. Tomorrow, afternoon highs will again rise into the
mid/upper 90s, though what appears to be slightly better mixing
will allow for dew points to concurrently be in the lower 70s.
While this will result in heat index values of 108-110 for
portions of the area, many locations will be just under advisory
thresholds. While the Heat Advisory remains in effect for
locations NE/E of Houston, we`ll need to monitor other locations
closely for a possible expansion tomorrow.

Any rainfall tomorrow will likely be sparse and related to the
inland propagation of the sea/bay breezes. Some marginal PoPs
remain in the forecast, but rainfall totals will likely be
inconsequential with any storms that occur.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Our normal high temperature this time of the year is in the low 90s
and with upper level ridging remaining in place heading towards the
weekend, we`ll continue to see high temperatures at least a few
degrees above normal. The same applies to our overnight temperatures
where we`ll steadily bottom out in the upper 70s/low 80s throughout
the long term period, which is about 5F or so above normal. A
shorter way of saying all of that is...it`s hot. Daytime
temperatures throughout the week will top out mainly in the mid to
upper 90s with some spots potentially reaching the 100F mark (most
likely to occur in the Brazos Valley). With onshore flow being
persistent, humidity will remain elevated so you can probably guess
where this is going. Heat index values are expected to be near or
exceed the Heat Advisory criteria (108F or greater) through the end
of the work week. With decent amounts of subsidence aloft, that will
also keep rain chances generally around 20% or so. That is at least
till we get to the weekend...which by the way looks to be
accompanied by another plume of Saharan dust that moves in Friday.

As we head towards the weekend, the main ridge axis shifts to the
east as an upper level low (and its subsequent trough) drifts
through the Northern Plains and towards the Upper Midwest. The
timing of this and how far east the ridge axis shifts may be one of
the factors that affects the track of Beryl. We are still not
anticipating any impacts from Beryl to Southeast Texas, but it will
be something worth monitoring as most model guidance places it in
the Bay of Campeche at the end of the work week. Check the
"Tropical" section below for additional details on Beryl. With the
weakening of the ridge, we`re expecting slightly "cooler"
temperatures over the weekend with highs dropping by a few degrees
along with a slight increase in rain chances up to 30%.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Mostly clear skies with light/variable winds will prevail overnight
with some brief patchy fog/haze and lower ceilings (generally MVFR)
possible around sunrise. Tomorrow should be similar to today...with
respect to rain chances moving in from the east once again but look
for slightly less coverage through the afternoon. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Elevated wave heights from the longer period swells courtesy of
Tropical Storm Chris will continue to subside throughout the day.
Seas will remain in the 2-4 foot range throughout the remainder of
the week as relatively benign marine conditions ensue. Winds will be
light with varying wind directions into tonight, but persistent
onshore flow returns by Tuesday and prevails going into the weekend.
Mariners should monitor the forecast towards end of the week with
the potential for another tropical system (Beryl) to move into the
Bay of Campeche. This is likely to cause another increase in wave
heights over the weekend due to longer period swells.

Batiste

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Hurricane Beryl moved through the Windward Islands earlier today as
a category 4 hurricane and is continuing to move westward into the
Caribbean Sea. Model and ensemble consensus continues to point
towards Beryl moving through the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay
of Campeche on Friday.

As was previously mentioned in this morning`s tropical discussion,
the bulk of the ensembles remain clustered to our south. Quite a bit
of uncertainty remains with the forecast this far out, so this will
be something to continue to monitor. Please DO NOT place too much
stock into one single deterministic model run. At this time, we are
not expecting any impacts in Southeast Texas.

Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77 100  77  98 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  80  98  79  95 /  20  10   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  82  93  83  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-196-198>200-300.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Batiste