826
FXUS64 KHGX 051726
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1226 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

We`ll have one more solid day with mid/upper level high pressure
directly overhead leading to temperatures this afternoon peaking in
the upper 90s to right around 100F for most of Southeast Texas
(except along the coast). Elevated humidity will keep heat index
values mainly in the 107-111F range, so a Heat Advisory remains in
effect for all of Southeast Texas through 7pm CDT this evening. For
those keeping count, this is the 11th day in a row with a Heat
Advisory for at least part of Southeast Texas...and we might make
that 12 days in a row tomorrow. Before we get to that though, let`s
talk about a cold front that will approach from the north later
today. As an upper level trough swings through the Upper Midwest,
it`ll serve to break down the ridge aloft and nudge it eastward.
This reduces the amount of subsidence aloft, but that portion of it
will play more of a factor on Saturday. The parent surface low for
this frontal boundary will be in the Great Lakes region, so we`ll be
on the very tail-end of it. The front itself may partially push into
portions of the Brazos Valley late Friday night/Saturday morning and
carry some scattered showers/storms along with it.

Rain chances will be highest east of I-45 in association with this
weak frontal boundary, and this is probably a good time to mention
that we`ll also have our typical afternoon isolated to scattered
seabreeze convection on top of that. As previously mentioned, with
the reduction in subsidence aloft by Saturday, we`ll likely see
increased coverage of rainfall. To give y`all an idea of what that
looks like...PoPs on Friday are ~20% and on Saturday they`re bumped
up to 40-60%. A weaker ridge and higher rain chances means a slight
decrease in high temperatures. Saturday`s highs will top out in the
mid to upper 90s with the hotter temperatures west of I-45. Moisture
convergence due to the front being nearby will lead to PW values
surging to near 2.3-2.4" Saturday afternoon, so plenty of moisture
to work with! With PW values well above the 90th percentile
(~2.10"), there will be potential for locally heavy rainfall. As a
result, WPC has outlined most of Southeast Texas in a marginal risk
(level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. That also means plenty of
humidity as well as we`ll face yet another day with heat index
values in the 106-111F range, so there is potential for another
Heat Advisory.

Later in the day on Saturday, another upper level trough swings into
the Northern Plains and that creates an area of weakness over the
state of Texas between the approaching trough and the departing
ridge. This may play a factor in the track of Beryl and is one of
the numerous reasons that uncertainty remains in the forecast for
where it makes landfall. For additional details on Beryl, see the
"Tropical" discussion down below.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

This part of the forecast is heavily influenced by the future track
and intensity of Beryl. Based on the latest National Hurricane Center
forecast from early this morning, expect increasing shower/thunderstorm
coverage for our area (locally heavy rainfall the primary severe weather
threat) as Beryl makes landfall near/around the South Texas coast Sunday
night or early Monday morning and works its way generally northwestward
then northward inland through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Locations
experiencing the strongest winds/rains look to be closer to Beryl`s
track which at this time would be our western areas, roughly from in/around
the Matagorda Bay area northward to in/around the Bryan/College Station
area. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Tuesday through
Thursday for much of the area. The Weather Prediction Center has parts
of our area in their Excessive Rainfall Outlooks beginning on Sunday
(Marginal Risk in/around the Matagorda Bay area) with increasing coverage
and risk on Monday and Tuesday (Slight Risk increasing across almost
all of the area by Tuesday). The Storm Prediction Center has areas in/around
Matagorda Bay in a Marginal Risk for severe weather in their Day 3 Outlook
(7 AM Sunday through 7 AM Monday).

A lot can change with our forecast depending on where Beryl decides
to go, how strong she gets and how fast she moves, so stay tuned for
future updates.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions should prevail throughout the day. Light winds
will become southeasterly this afternoon with the sea breeze.
Isolated showers and storms will be possible late this afternoon
into this evening, mainly in areas north of I-10. MVFR CIGS/patchy
fog may develop north of I-10 Saturday morning, later clearing
that afternoon. Models suggest scattered afternoon thunderstorms
will develop Saturday afternoon.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through
the next few days. Winds and seas will be on the rise later this weekend
into the first half of the upcoming week as first Beryl moves into
the Gulf of Mexico and towards the South Texas coast and then another
round of deep tropical moisture surges into the western Gulf. Elevated
water levels along the bays, high surf and strong rip currents are possible.
Multiple rounds of showers/storms that could result in higher winds/seas
can be expected.

Continue to monitor the progress of both Beryl and the second slug of
Gulf moisture as any additional changes in the track/intensity of
these systems are possible during the next few days.

42

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

As of ~4am CDT, Beryl is now a category 2 hurricane and is just off
of the coast of the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula
where it`ll make landfall later this morning. It is currently moving
west-northwestward and will make its way into the southwestern Gulf
by Friday evening. The 06Z suite of models trended a bit more
northward compared to the 00Z models with most consensus pointing
toward a South TX landfall Sunday night/Monday morning. There are
still a few factors at play that will determine Beryl`s final
landfall including where Beryl emerges from the Yucatan Peninsula
later today (what latitude is it at when it enters the Gulf), how
quickly the ridge currently over the SE CONUS moves eastward (and
subsequently how deep is the upper level trough that will push the
ridge eastward), and how much it can intensify over the Gulf
(stronger tropical cyclones tend to drift more poleward).

While uncertainty remains for the end of the forecast track/final
landfall, there is at least some certainty that rainfall chances
will increase early next week along with an increasing risk of rip
currents.

Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov as any significant
changes in the track and/or intensity forecast could lead to
significant changes in our area forecast.

Batiste

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The first four days of July have been very warm.

The average temperature for the Houston area was 89.0 degrees, which
was 5.0 degrees above normal. This is their second warmest start to
the month (1st place is 89.3 degrees in 1980). Records date back to
1889.

The average temperature for Houston Hobby was 88.9 degrees, which was
4.9 degrees above normal. This is their warmest start to the month
(second place is 88.1 degrees in 2023. Records date back to 1931.

The average temperature for Galveston was 87.8 degrees, which was 2.8
degrees above normal. This is their second warmest start to the month
(1st place is 88.1 degrees in 2005). Records date back to 1874.

The average temperature for Palacios was 86.5 degrees, which was 1.5
degrees above normal. This is their sixth warmest start to the month
(1st place is 89.1 degrees in 2023). Records date back to 1943.

The average temperature for College Station was 87.6 degrees, which
was 3.6 degrees above normal. This is their eighth warmest start
to the month (1st place is 89.5 degrees in 2009). Records date
back to 1889.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  77  95  77 /  20  20  50  20
Houston (IAH)  99  79  96  79 /  20  20  60  20
Galveston (GLS)  93  81  92  83 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...03
MARINE...42