Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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995 FXUS64 KHGX 260912 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A few isolated showers again starting to show up along the coast. Anticipate that these will wane in the mid morning hours. Mid level subsidence and H7 temps around 11C and H85 temps 19-21C should generally keep POPs on the very low side, but there`s a non-zero chance we could see a cell or two emerge toward peak heating. Southern portions of the CWA would probably be the place to watch where less hostile capping will be in place along with the potential for a weak baybreeze or seabreeze. Gusty winds would be a possibility should any decent one pop up with inverted-v sounding profile in place. Otherwise, warm/muggy conditions will remain in place and the ongoing heat advisory configuration & timing will remain status quo. Later this evening and overnight we`ll be keeping an eye to our north and northeast (southern OK/Arkansas/ne TX/northern LA) to see if any shra/tstms along a weak front and disturbances in the NNE flow aloft can survive long enough to make it into portions of southeast Texas. There remains a mix of guidance with varying opinions, some much more bullish than others. Given the run-to-run inconsistencies, overall confidence is below average...but feel it`s best to keep some low POPs in the fcst until observed trends are better established. Thursday wx looks about the same as today...warm/muggy, with a non- zero chance of a few isolated storms with peak heating. Will let the dayshift evaluate the need for any heat advsy extensions. 47 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The long term forecast remains dominated by ridging spanning the Southern CONUS. While the midlevel ridge starts off a tad weaker on Friday, global ensembles indicate that it will amplify over the Southeast CONUS/ArkLaTex Region this the weekend into next week. 850mb temperatures are still progged to gradually creep up, further reflected in the upward trend of multi-run max surface temperature values. Deep moisture from PWs in excess of 1.75" and weak capping will still bring a daily chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Rain chances remain greatest for areas largely south of I-10 where the sea breeze may initiate most activity before tracking further inland. Impulses rounding the midlevel ridge could further aid in shower/storm development on Sunday and portions of Monday. On a more minor note, NASA`s GMAO indicates that plumes of Saharan Dust will pass over SE Texas on Friday through Sunday. This may result in hazy- white sky conditions during this period. Overall, hot conditions should continue through mid next week, with highs in the upper 80s near the coast to upper 90s inland. Some isolated spots could see the highs break the triple digit mark. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Heat indices during the afternoon will range from around 106-112 at their peak, with isolated higher values possible. The Heat Risk for those participating in leisurely outdoor activities will be Moderate (level 3/5) to Major (level 4/5) each day. WBGT values suggest that those participating in strenuous outdoor activities may feel Extreme (level 5/5) heat stress during the hottest parts of the day. Additional Heat Advisories could be warranted throughout this period. Those planning to spend extensive time outside should practice heat safety. Remember to drink plenty of fluids, wear lightweight/loose fitting cloths and take breaks inside away from the sun. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions should prevail. Exception might be in the morning hours with the potential for some intermittent MVFR ceilings at some locations. Storm chances still too low to mention in TAFs, but can`t rule one out at any individual site across the southern part of SE Tx. And as mentioned above, will be monitoring the trends to our n/ne this evening in the event we might need to add the mention into some TAFs CXO northward if any storms look like they might survive and possibly make it into portions of the area. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet will prevail across the SE Texas coast into the weekend. Isolated showers and storms will be possible daily. Tide levels will also remain elevated over the next several days. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 98 78 97 79 / 10 20 0 10 Houston (IAH) 96 79 97 79 / 30 20 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 90 81 91 82 / 20 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>213-226-227. GM...None. && $$