Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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226 FXUS64 KHGX 270459 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1159 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A bit more unsettled weather pattern to end the work week, with subtle shortwave trough and associated slow MCS over northeast TX and northwest LA this afternoon which models are pretty consistent with dissipating this evening. However, HRRR and GFS both support some new development along residual outflow overnight near east- central TX which would have a south-southwest propagation component into some of our eastern counties Thursday morning. While this will dissipate through the day tomorrow, there should be some persistent mid/high clouds in its wake. So while the afternoon will once again be another hot one for late June, not as confident on max heat indicies above 108f with these lingering MCS affects. Will opt to hold off on a heat advisory for now, however with late day sun we could still get advisory levels once again for a few hours later in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The primary concern in the extended period continues to surround the potential for excessive heat, while we also continue to monitor for the possibility of scattered thunderstorms to develop over the course of the weekend and into the early part of next week. The contributing synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged, with a dominant midlevel ridge building to approximately 597-98 dam by the end of the weekend. With 850mb temps warming to around 22 degC per the most recent deterministic model runs, high temperatures will approach the upper 90s for most of the area and even perhaps will break into the triple digits for a few locations through Tuesday. With dew points remaining situated in the mid to upper 70s, maximum apparent temperatures look to approach 110 each day for much of the area. This, combined with max WBGT values of 90-91 degF, will likely require the issuance of additional heat advisories throughout much of the period. With an array of outdoor events underway over the course of the weekend, heat safety precautions will be paramount. Taking preventative measures like staying hydrated and avoiding strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day could very well be the difference between a pleasant weekend and a heat-related illness. While heat stands out as the primary forecast concern, things may become slightly complicated by the potential for daily isolated thunderstorms. Despite the presence of the aforementioned ridge, our positioning on its eastern peripheral will allow a few weak pockets of shortwave energy to traverse the ridge, supplying enough PVA to provide an impetus for afternoon convection. This, combined with robust heating and the daily propagation of the sea/bay breeze, will keep ~20-30% PoPs in the forecast with the greatest rainfall potential coming on Sunday and Monday. Another quick thing to note is the continued elevated low temperatures (high 70s to low 80s) each night across the area; these elevated lows can inhibit recovery from daytime heat stress and thus pose a greater risk for heat-related illnesses in subsequent hot days. As such, considering heat safety precautions will remain key. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Generally low end VFR, with occasional MVFR in some spots, is expected overnight and into the morning. We will need to watch small disturbances approaching from the north that could try to spark some shra/tsra activity. The threat appears to be low for now. However, we did add VCSH to the TAF at GLS for 12 to 15 UTC. We have not made any changes to the forecast for tomorrow, with southwest winds becoming south to southeast by afternoon. Some of the latest hi-res guidance suggest scattered shra/tsra activity that could impact some of our terminals. We have opted to leave out any TS/SH mention in the TAFs while we wait for more overnight data. && .MARINE... Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Generally benign marine conditions are expected for the foreseeable future as light to moderate onshore winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. There will be a chance for thunderstorms each day, but storm coverage should generally remain isolated. Conditions are likely to remain below advisory thresholds for the full period, aside from any brief strong wind gusts associated with developing storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 98 77 97 76 / 10 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 97 79 97 78 / 30 20 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 82 91 82 / 20 10 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Evans LONG TERM....Cady AVIATION...Self MARINE...Cady